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HomeMy WebLinkAboutDRC-2021-005546 - 0901a06880e6d464Radioactive Material License Application / Federal Cell Facility Page P-1 Appendix P April 9, 2021 Revision 0 APPENDIX P NEPTUNE COVER INFILTRATION ANALYSIS (Neptune, 2021b) Radioactive Material License Application / Federal Cell Facility Page P-2 Appendix P April 9, 2021 Revision 0 5.6.1.2 EnergySolutions’ Response to FPL Construction Specifications Federal Cell Cover Interrogatories, Comment 6 – Frost Protection Layer: “[D]iscuss the inherent difficulties of constructing a uniform material from such a specification, and how consistency of layer properties will be maintained spatially and throughout time so that the conditions inherent in the PA model are realized in the actual cover system over the service life and compliance period of the proposed Federal Cell.” EnergySolutions’ Response: The Frost Protection Layer material property specification in Drawing 14004-C05 states that the material is well graded bank run cobble/gravel/soil material with a maximum rock size of 16-inches. The consistency of layers properties over time is addressed in the Neptune response to this interrogatory dated December 3, 2020. As-built consistency is addressed in the FCF CQA/QC Manual work element for Frost Protection Layer Placement (Specifications 123 thru 127). Specifically, Specification 125 requires gradation testing be performed on the material using ASTM D5519 (“Standard Test Methods for Particle Size Analysis of Natural and Man-Made Riprap Materials”) or C136 (“Standard Test Methods for Sieve Analysis of Fine and Coarse Aggregates”) to ensure the material is well graded. The quality control inspector will note any deficiencies or abnormalities and will notify the Project Manager to have the material reworked to attain a more uniform gradation. Further, Specification 126 has quality control observing placement of the Frost Protection Layer to ensure that fines are not concentrated in localized areas. Again, if the quality control inspector notices any discrepancies, they will notify the Project Manager and have operations re-distribute the material so that no localized concentration of finer material is present. In both of these instances, the material will be re-inspected after operations. NAC-0165_R0 Clive DU PA Model—Response to DWMRC 12-3-2020 Comments 31 March 2021 Prepared by NEPTUNE AND COMPANY, INC. 1435 Garrison St, Suite 201, Lakewood, CO 80215 Clive DU PA Model—Response to DWMRC 12-3-2020 Comments 31 March 2021 ii 1. Title: Clive DU PA Model—Response to DWMRC 12-3-2020 Comments 2. Filename: Clive DU PA Model - Response to DWMRC 12-3-2020 Comments final.docx 3. Description: Responses to UDEQ Letter “Comments on EnergySolutions Cover System Described in the DU PA, Draft Federal Cell License Application,” dated December 3, 2020. Name Date 4. Originator Dan Levitt, Paul Duffy, Gregg Occhiogrosso, Dylan Boyle, and Matthew Bowers 31 March 2021 5. Reviewer Paul Black and Sean McCandless 31 March 2021 6. Remarks Clive DU PA Model—Response to DWMRC 12-3-2020 Comments 31 March 2021 iii CONTENTS CONTENTS ................................................................................................................................... iii FIGURES ........................................................................................................................................ v TABLES ....................................................................................................................................... viii ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS ....................................................................................... ix Executive Summary ......................................................................................................................... 1 1.0 Introduction ............................................................................................................................ 6 2.0 Revised Federal Cell Design .................................................................................................. 7 2.1 Embankment Footprint ..................................................................................................... 7 2.2 Top Slope Surface Layer Thickness ................................................................................. 9 2.3 Transition Zone and Side Slope Frost Protection Layer ................................................. 10 3.0 Results from the DU PA v1.4 Model ................................................................................... 11 3.1.1 Target Percolation Threshold .................................................................................... 13 4.0 Hybrid Cover Performance—HYDRUS-2D Modeling ....................................................... 14 4.1.1 Modeling Domain ..................................................................................................... 14 4.1.2 Layering .................................................................................................................... 16 4.1.3 Boundary Conditions ................................................................................................ 17 4.1.4 Mesh .......................................................................................................................... 18 4.1.5 Rooting Parameters ................................................................................................... 19 4.1.6 Atmospheric Input ..................................................................................................... 20 4.1.7 Initial Conditions ....................................................................................................... 20 4.2 Material Hydraulic Properties ........................................................................................ 21 4.3 Results ............................................................................................................................ 22 4.4 Discussion ....................................................................................................................... 28 5.0 UDEQ Comments and Responses ........................................................................................ 29 5.1 UDEQ Comment 1: Hybrid Cover Percolation Model .................................................. 29 5.1.1 Comment 1 Response ................................................................................................ 30 5.2 UDEQ Comment 2: HYDRUS Snowmelt Algorithm .................................................... 30 5.2.1 Comment 2 Response ................................................................................................ 31 5.2.1.1 Literature Review ................................................................................................ 31 5.2.1.2 Cover Test Cell Model ........................................................................................ 31 5.2.1.3 Comparison with Regional Snowpack Data ....................................................... 36 5.3 UDEQ Comment 3: Applying Cover Test Cell Data ..................................................... 42 5.3.1 Comment 3 Response ................................................................................................ 42 5.4 UDEQ Comment 4: Regression Model .......................................................................... 45 5.4.1 Comment 4 Response ................................................................................................ 45 5.4.1.1 Variation of Ksat of the Radon Barrier (Layers 4 and 5) in Model v1.4 .............. 46 5.4.1.2 Exploration of Ksat Variation in Upper Cover Soils Layers 1 and 2 ................... 46 5.5 UDEQ Comment 5: Hydraulic Properties ...................................................................... 50 5.5.1 Comment 5 Response ................................................................................................ 50 5.6 UDEQ Comment 6: FPL Properties ............................................................................... 50 5.6.1 Comment 6 Response ................................................................................................ 50 5.6.1.1 FPL Properties ..................................................................................................... 50 5.6.1.2 FPL Construction Specifications ......................................................................... 51 5.6.1.3 Long-Term Durability of the Frost Protection Layer .......................................... 51 Clive DU PA Model—Response to DWMRC 12-3-2020 Comments 31 March 2021 iv 5.7 UDEQ Comment 7: Capillary Break .............................................................................. 55 5.7.1 Comment 7 Response ................................................................................................ 55 5.8 UDEQ Comment 8: Water Balance Graphs ................................................................... 62 5.8.1 Comment 8 Response ................................................................................................ 62 5.9 UDEQ Comment 9: Abstraction Model ......................................................................... 71 5.9.1 Comment 9 Response ................................................................................................ 71 5.10 UDEQ Comment 10: Characterizing Uncertainty .......................................................... 74 5.10.1 Comment 10 Response .............................................................................................. 74 5.11 UDEQ Comment 11: Tails of the Distribution ............................................................... 77 5.11.1 Comment 11 Response .............................................................................................. 77 5.12 UDEQ Comment 12: Climate Record and Comparison With Other Sites ..................... 80 5.12.1 Comment 12 Response .............................................................................................. 80 5.12.1.1 Climate Record .................................................................................................... 80 5.12.1.2 Comparison Across Sites .................................................................................... 89 6.0 Conclusion ............................................................................................................................ 96 7.0 Attachments .......................................................................................................................... 96 8.0 References ............................................................................................................................ 96 Clive DU PA Model—Response to DWMRC 12-3-2020 Comments 31 March 2021 v FIGURES Figure ES-1. DU PA v1.4 dose results, R313-25-20 dose limit, and typical background dose. ..... 4 Figure 1. Revised (2021) Federal Cell footprint (from drawing 14004-C01, rev 2). ...................... 8 Figure 2. Former (2020) Federal Cell footprint (from drawing 14004-C-01, rev. 0). ..................... 9 Figure 3. Top Slope Detail (from drawing 14004-C05, rev. 1). .................................................... 10 Figure 4. Transition Zone (2021) Detail (from drawing 14004-C05, rev. 1). ............................... 10 Figure 5. Former Transition Zone (2020) Detail (from drawing 14004-C05, rev. 0). .................. 11 Figure 6. DU PA v1.4 dose results, R313-25-20 dose limit, and typical background dose. ......... 13 Figure 7. Cross section of federal cell, including a 135 m (448.4 ft) of top slope, and detail of the transition zone of the hybrid cover design. ................................................................. 15 Figure 8. Full length cover design and abbreviated hybrid cover model. ..................................... 16 Figure 9. Model layering and materials for the 2D hybrid cover. ................................................. 17 Figure 10. Boundary conditions used in the 2D hybrid cover model. ........................................... 18 Figure 11. Node spacing detail shown for a portion of the top slope. ........................................... 19 Figure 12. Rooting depths shown for the top slope, transition zone, and side slope. ................... 20 Figure 13. Sorted results from the v1.4 HYDRUS modeling with the maximum, 2nd highest, median, and minimum percolation results indicated. .................................................. 21 Figure 14. Percolation out of the lower radon barrier, as a function of lateral distance in the 2D hybrid cover model. ..................................................................................................... 24 Figure 15. Tension at the bottom of the lower radon barrier, as a function of lateral distance in the 2D hybrid cover model. ......................................................................................... 25 Figure 16. Water content at the bottom of the lower radon barrier, as a function of lateral distance in the 2D hybrid cover model. ....................................................................... 26 Figure 17. Annual percolation out of the lower radon barrier for the entire 135 m length of proposed ET cover (shown in Figure 8). Results for the Maximum and 2nd highest show a minor amount of coarseness in the results after 300 years. This is due to the precision of the model output in HYDRUS, and not a change in behavior of the model. .......................................................................................................................... 27 Figure 18. Test Cell (reprinted from EnergySolutions (2020)). .................................................... 32 Figure 19. Layers in the 1D Test Cell model. ............................................................................... 33 Figure 20. Monthly tip data collected from the Cover Test Cell. .................................................. 35 Figure 21. 14-day periods of calculated vs observed snow layers at Dugway, UT in temporal order of occurrence. ..................................................................................................... 38 Figure 22. 14-day periods of calculated vs observed snow layers at Dugway, UT in temporal order of occurrence. ..................................................................................................... 39 Figure 23. Average daily calculated and observed snow layers at Dugway, UT. ......................... 40 Figure 24. Daily Mean Temperature at Dugway, UT averaged across the period of record. ....... 41 Figure 25. Percolation as a function of Ksat for 45 simulations. .................................................... 47 Figure 26. Percolation vs Ksat with h50 = 1500 cm for the same 45 model runs presented above. 49 Figure 27. Reproduced from A.1 Clive Pit Wall Interpretation (C. G. Oviatt, unpublished data) and stratigraphic comparison with quarry wall studies from Neptune (2020b). ......... 54 Clive DU PA Model—Response to DWMRC 12-3-2020 Comments 31 March 2021 vi Figure 28. SWCC for the FPL as modeled in v1.4. ....................................................................... 57 Figure 29. Unsaturated conductivity as a function of pressure head for a coarse and fine material. ..................................................................................................................................... 58 Figure 30. Specific moisture capacity for the FPL as modeled in v1.4. ........................................ 59 Figure 31. Evaporation zone pressure head and flux through the FPL vs time for a wet period in Simulation 20. The red dotted line is drawn at a pressure head of -250 cm. Flux values are negative for downward flow. ...................................................................... 60 Figure 32. SWCCs for the FPL and two realizations of the evaporation zone layer. The tan horizontal line is drawn at a tension of 250 cm, while the dotted lines indicate the corresponding water content for the evaporative zone curves. ................................... 61 Figure 33. Additional nodes were added to the model domain to improve detail in the output for each layer. Red dots represent observation nodes used in DU PA v1.4; black circles represent the additional nodes. .................................................................................... 64 Figure 34. Water content at observations nodes on selected days around a large 2.7 cm storm event. ........................................................................................................................... 65 Figure 35. Water content at observations nodes following a period of high precipitation frequency that results in flow through the frost protection layer. ............................... 66 Figure 36. Ten years of daily water content in the v1.4 simulation #20 model. ........................... 67 Figure 37. Ten years of daily tension in the v1.4 simulation #20 model. ..................................... 68 Figure 38. Three years of daily water content in the v1.4 simulation #20 model. ........................ 69 Figure 39. Three years of daily tension in the v1.4 simulation #20 model. .................................. 69 Figure 40. Three years of daily (upward) fluxes in the v1.4 simulation #20 model. .................... 70 Figure 41. Three years of daily (downward) fluxes in the v1.4 simulation #20 model. ............... 70 Figure 42. Scatterplot of percolation values computed from both the regression model and HYDRUS using the same pairs of α and n that were randomly generated. ................ 74 Figure 43. Comparison of Bingham Environmental (1991) water content data with water content calculated using the regression equation for the DU PA GoldSim model and with the results of the 20 HYDRUS simulations. Figure 26 of EnergySolutions (2018). ......... 78 Figure 44. Water content in the evaporation zone from 50 HYDRUS simulations used in DU PA v1.4. ............................................................................................................................. 79 Figure 45. Water content in the evaporation zone from 50 HYDRUS simulations used in DU PA v1.4. ............................................................................................................................. 80 Figure 46. Total precipitation over various time periods for the 1000y and 100y records. .......... 82 Figure 47. Flux at the bottom of the cover and precipitation for both the 100-year (top) and 1000- year (bottom) meteorological records for Simulation 1 of 50. Only the last cycle of the meteorological record is shown. Vertical scales are the same for both plots. ....... 84 Figure 48. Water stress models. .................................................................................................... 85 Figure 49. Histograms of sets of 50 simulations using the 100-year meteorological record (top), the 1000-year meteorological record with Model v1.4 root water uptake parameters (middle), and the 1000-year meteorological record with h50 set to 1500 cm (bottom). ..................................................................................................................................... 87 Figure 50. Simulation by simulation comparison of percolations derived from scenarios with h50 set to 200 cm (blue) and with h50 set to 1500 cm (green). ........................................... 88 Clive DU PA Model—Response to DWMRC 12-3-2020 Comments 31 March 2021 vii Figure 51. Layering of ET cover systems at Clive, Monticello, and Blanding, Utah. .................. 90 Clive DU PA Model—Response to DWMRC 12-3-2020 Comments 31 March 2021 viii TABLES Table 1. Tension (pressure head) used for initial conditions in each model. Values are shown in cm. ............................................................................................................................... 20 Table 2. Material hydraulic parameters used in DU PA v1.4 modeling. ...................................... 22 Table 3. Parameter sets for α, n, and Ksat used in the 2D hybrid cover models. ........................... 22 Table 4. Average annual percolation out of the radon barrier (model years 400–500); v1.4 results vs 2D hybrid cover results. .......................................................................................... 28 Table 5. Comparison of the layering on the top and side slopes of the original Federal Cell design and the revised design. ................................................................................................ 30 Table 6. Material hydraulic properties. ......................................................................................... 34 Table 7. Results of the 1D Test Cell model. .................................................................................. 35 Table 8. Engineering properties of cover layers for DU PA v1.4, the Cover Test Cell, and NUREG/CR-7028. ....................................................................................................... 44 Table 9. Random sample from trimmed set of values for α, n, and percolation from both HYDRUS and the regression model. ........................................................................... 73 Table 10. Summary statistics for 100-year and 1000-year climate records. ................................. 81 Table 11. Engineering properties of cover layers in the Clive Federal Cell, DU PA v1.4. ........... 91 Table 12. Engineering properties of cover layers in the Monticello disposal facility. .................. 92 Table 13. Engineering properties of cover layers in the Blanding White Mesa Mill Tailings Facility. ........................................................................................................................ 93 Table 14. Precipitation and percolation data for the Clive Cover Test Cell, Monticello, and Blanding facilities. Clive precipitation average calculated for the years 2002–2016 to match with Cover Test Cell period of service; site average across 28-year meteorological record is 217.41 mm/yr. ...................................................................... 94 Clive DU PA Model—Response to DWMRC 12-3-2020 Comments 31 March 2021 ix ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS bgs below ground surface CQA/QC Construction Quality Assurance/Quality Control CWCB Colorado Water Conservation Board DEQ (Utah) Department of Environmental Quality DU depleted uranium DWMRC Division of Waste Management and Radiation Control ET evapotranspiration FPL Frost Protection Layer GWPL groundwater protection limits HELP Hydrologic Evaluation of Landfill Performance model LLRW low-level radioactive waste MOP member of the public MPV maximum permissible velocity NRC (United States) Nuclear Regulatory Commission PA performance assessment PAWG Performance Assessment Working Group PE potential evaporation PET potential evapotranspiration QA/QC quality assurance/quality control SCS Soil Conservation Service SER Safety Evaluation Report SWAT Soil and Water Assessment Tool SWCC soil water characteristic curve SWE snow water equivalent TEDE total effective dose equivalent UDEQ Utah Department of Environmental Quality Clive DU PA Model—Response to DWMRC 12-3-2020 Comments 31 March 2021 1 Executive Summary The Clive depleted uranium (DU) performance assessment (PA) evaluates the range of likely impacts of disposal of DU in a new Federal Cell to be located in the southwest corner of the licensed area. The DU PA is created as a systems-level model using the GoldSim probabilistic modeling platform and is currently at version 1.4. The DU PA v1.4 model and supporting documentation have been evaluated by the Utah Department of Environmental Quality (UDEQ) and their contractor, SC&A Inc., for a number of years since its initial publication in 2015 (Neptune 2015e). The current round of comments (Utah DEQ 2020) ask that the “hybrid” cover design introduced in the 2020 response to interrogatories (Neptune 2020a) be subject to additional verification. The hybrid cover features an evapotranspiration (ET) cover system of native soils and vegetation on the large top slope area; and rip rap armoring of the steeper side slope area. The ET cover has been selected for its superior performance in minimizing percolation of atmospheric precipitation into the waste; while the rock armor cover has been selected for its improved assurance for minimizing the potential for erosion of the steeper side slopes. Additional hydrological modeling of this hybrid cover system has been performed using the HYDRUS-2D modeling platform. As detailed below, this modeling projects that the rip rap side slopes are expected to have higher percolation than the ET cover top slope; and that the impact of this limited area of higher percolation remains within the bounds of previous analyses that demonstrate acceptable embankment performance. It is a truism when modeling complex systems such as radioactive waste disposal sites that no model is perfect, but some models are useful. “Useful,” in this context, means that the model is a reasonable representation of the system as currently understood and conceptualized, with the acknowledgement that uncertainties will always remain. Important uncertainties are captured in the probability distributions of the input parameters. Decisions can and should be made based on the current model and its results. Standard PA practice calls for the model to be routinely reviewed and updated as new information and data from monitoring programs or new relevant research becomes available. This could include new information about site characteristics, the waste itself, and the process models that have been abstracted into the systems-level probabilistic model. Updates to the model can lead to adaptive decision making if new model results indicate a need to change a current decision. For the Clive site over the next few decades before final closure, this could simply result, for example, in a change in cover design or procedures governing waste placement. EnergySolutions is required to provide a surety fund that would accommodate changes under such an adaptive management program. Alternatively, adaptive updates to the PA could also demonstrate that initial constraints may safely be relaxed, such as that requiring DU waste be to placed at an elevation below current native grade. What is described here might be called a PA maintenance program, the details of which would normally be captured by License condition outlining the schedule and expectations for routine updates to the PA. Clive DU PA Model—Response to DWMRC 12-3-2020 Comments 31 March 2021 2 This concept is important in the context of DU PA v1.4 because a number of the outstanding questions rest all or in part on research that has emerged; and continues to emerge, since completion of this version of the model in 2015. For example, updated information on the performance of a somewhat similar ET cover design in Monticello, UT is anticipated to be available concurrent with preparation of this response document. This emerging research is certainly of interest to the model and appropriate to incorporate in PA maintenance; but is shown in the attached responses to support rather than change the fundamental conclusions of DU PA v1.4. The Final Report for the Clive DU PA Model, Clive DU PA Model v1.4 (Neptune 2015e) provides the following summary of DU PA v1.4 results for the quantitative compliance period of 10,000 years. Additional work preparing interrogatory and comment responses after creation of version 1.4 have not changed the principal analysis and reported conclusions. Compliance with the performance objectives for the inadvertent intruder dose of 500 mrem in a year and for the MOP of 25 mrem in a year is clearly established for all three types of potential future receptors. This indicates that for the disposal configuration where DU wastes are placed below grade, doses are expected to remain well below applicable dose thresholds… Results are also available for the offsite (MOP) receptors. None of the 95th percentile dose estimates for these receptors exceeds 1 mrem in a year, and all of the peak mean dose estimates are at or below 0.1 mrem in a year. Table ES-1. Peak TEDE: statistical summary peak TEDE (mrem in a yr) within 10,000 yr receptor mean median (50th %ile) 95th %ile ranch worker 6.2E-2 5.1E-2 1.5E-1 hunter 4.5E-3 3.8E-3 9.9E-3 OHV enthusiast 8.4E-3 7.5E-3 1.8E-2 Results are based on 10,000 realizations of the Model. TEDE: Total effective dose equivalent For those radionuclides for which GWPLs exist, as specified in the facility’s permit (UWQB 2009), results are shown in Table ES-2. For all such radionuclides compliance with the GWPLs is clearly demonstrated… Clive DU PA Model—Response to DWMRC 12-3-2020 Comments 31 March 2021 3 Table ES-2. Peak groundwater activity concentrations within 500 yr, compared to GWPLs peak activity concentration within 500 yr (pCi/L) radionuclide GWPL1 (pCi/L) mean median (50th %ile) 95th %ile 90Sr 42 0 0 0 99Tc 3790 26 4.3E-2 150 129I 21 1.7E-2 4.3E-11 1.1E-1 230Th 83 2.2E-28 0 0 232Th 92 1.4E-34 0 0 237Np 7 1.5E-19 0 3.7E-27 233U 26 5.6E-24 0 3.9E-28 234U 26 2.1E-23 0 2.2E-28 235U 27 1.6E-24 0 2.0E-29 236U 27 2.7E-24 0 3.3E-29 238U 26 1.5E-22 0 1.8E-27 1GWPLs are from UWQB (2009) Table 1A. Results are based on 10,000 realizations of the Model. Figure ES-1 displays Table ES-1 dose results graphically in context with the dose limit of 25 mrem/year for members of the public under R313-25-20. Typical background radiation dose is also provided on this figure as a point of reference. DU PA v1.4 results are 2 to 3 orders of magnitude below the dose limit. Clive DU PA Model—Response to DWMRC 12-3-2020 Comments 31 March 2021 4 Figure ES-1. DU PA v1.4 dose results, R313-25-20 dose limit, and typical background dose. It is worth noting that many of the open questions regarding DU PA v1.4 reflect new or revised scenarios asked of the modeling. What if snowmelt behaves differently than the HYDRUS percolation model predicts? What if the climate record is different from that initially modeled? What if the material properties of the cover layers vary in this or that direction? Throughout the review process, these and similar questions have been asked in a way that challenges the modeling and its overall result that very limited percolation is expected through the embankment; and thus, very limited impact to groundwater beneath the embankment is projected. At the same time, there are many scenarios to suggest that the percolation modeling has been performed in a way that over-predicts potential impact to groundwater resources. What if desert plants, adapted to arid conditions, are much more effective at removing water from surface soils than modeled? What if the basic model structure of HYDRUS, which assumes essentially no surface runoff of precipitation, overstates the amount of water available to infiltrate? What if this or that material property understates its ability to minimize percolation? The results reported above are based on 10,000 realizations of the DU PA model—each of these realizations could be considered to reflect a unique what if scenario for the model. Through such modeling, the central tendency of the system is evaluated; and the evaluation indicates very low potential for radiological doses or groundwater quality impacts. 1.E-03 1.E-02 1.E-01 1.E+00 1.E+01 1.E+02 1.E+03 Mean Median 95th %ile Do s e ( m r e m / y e a r ) Ranch worker (DU PA v1.4) Hunter (DU PA v1.4) OHV enthusiast (DU PA v1.4) Dose limit Typical radiation dose in U.S. Clive DU PA Model—Response to DWMRC 12-3-2020 Comments 31 March 2021 5 Ultimately, the DU PA v1.4 evaluates an above-grade embankment located in a terminal desert basin. Annual potential evapotranspiration in Utah’s west desert far exceeds precipitation; and the site is located above a largely stagnant aquifer in an area with limited natural groundwater recharge (Bingham Environmental 1994; Stantec 2020). Projections of negligible percolation into and through an above-grade embankment in this context are not only reasonable, they are to be expected. It is appropriate to ask a number of what if questions when considering performance assessment for radioactive waste disposal. However, at the end of the day it is also vital to recognize that the performance assessment does not pretend to predict the future; rather, it projects performance within a formalized scenario derived by NRC in establishing regulations for the safety of radioactive waste disposal. The scenario itself is understood to be an artifact. NRC (2000) guidance on performance assessment methodology cautions that “…consideration given to the issue of evaluating site conditions that may arise from changes in climate or the influences of human behavior should be limited so as to avoid unnecessary speculation.” DU PA v1.4 demonstrates compliance with the dose and groundwater protection requirements of Utah regulations relating to DU disposal. The interrogatory and response process has added to the record supporting these conclusions but has not caused the quantitative model itself to require revision. Accordingly, DU PA v1.4 remains a reasonable basis for demonstrating compliance of the disposal facility. Compliance with UAC R313-25-9(5)(a) is affirmed by DU PA v1.4, together with the supporting documentation as supplemented by the interrogatory/response cycle. Clive DU PA Model—Response to DWMRC 12-3-2020 Comments 31 March 2021 6 1.0 Introduction Beginning in 2009, EnergySolutions contracted Neptune to create a probabilistic performance assessment (PA) for the disposal of large quantities of depleted uranium (DU) at their Clive, Utah low-level radioactive waste (LLRW) disposal facility. The initial model was submitted as version 1.0 on June 1, 2011 (Neptune 2011) and was revised to version 1.2 on June 5, 2014 (Neptune 2014). A Safety Evaluation Report (SER) based on review of version 1.2 was issued by UDEQ in April 2015 (SC&A 2015). On November 25, 2015, EnergySolutions submitted Radioactive Material License UT2300249: Safety Evaluation Report for Condition 35.B Performance Assessment; Response to Issues Raised in the April 2015 Draft Safety Evaluation Report (EnergySolutions 2015). This document included version 1.4 of the DU PA (Neptune 2015e), prepared in response to open primary and new interrogatories raised after development and DWMRC review of version 1.0; included in Appendix C and Appendix B, respectively, of the SER. On May 11, 2017, UDEQ provided Amended and New Interrogatories Related to Clive DU PA Modeling Report Version 1.4 Dated November 2015 (Utah DEQ 2017). This document contains clarifications to the original interrogatories from DU PA version 1.0 that remained open, clarifications to the interrogatories newly raised with version 1.2 and new interrogatories introduced with version 1.4 of the DU PA. On April 2, 2018, EnergySolutions submitted Radioactive Material License UT2300249: Responses to Amended and New Interrogatories Related to Clive DU PA Modeling Report Version 1.4 Dated November 2015 (EnergySolutions 2018). As suggested by UDEQ, this document included seven topical reports organized consistently with the themes expressed in the interrogatory package (Utah DEQ 2017). On July 25, 2019, UDEQ provided Depleted Uranium Performance Assessment (DU PA); Clive Facility; Model Version 1.4 Amended Interrogatories; Radioactive Materials License #2300249 (Utah DEQ 2019). This document contains amended interrogatories of open issues regarding version 1.4 of the DU PA model, closes several interrogatories, and introduces two more new interrogatories. Neptune responded to these interrogatories on April 24, 2020 (Neptune 2020a). In the 2020 response to interrogatories, a new “hybrid” cover design was introduced. This cover design incorporates an evapotranspiration cover on the top slope; and a rock armor cover on the side slope. On December 3, 2020, UDEQ provided “Comments on EnergySolutions Cover Design System Described in the DU PA, Draft Federal Cell License Application” (Utah DEQ 2020). This letter poses 12 technical questions relating to the hybrid cover design. Full text of each comment is quoted using blue text in Arial font, size 10.5 pt, and is indented to visually distinguish the comment from the response. An example is shown below: Sample format for quoting comment text. Clive DU PA Model—Response to DWMRC 12-3-2020 Comments 31 March 2021 7 This response document does not comment on additional UDEQ comments provided under separate cover “RE: Technical Report” dated January 28, 2021 (Utah DEQ 2021). This second comment document includes concerns relating to erosion and embankment stability. Neptune is preparing a response to those issues as a separate report (Neptune 2021). Section 2.0 summarizes changes to the Federal Cell design. Section 3.0 discusses results from the DU PA v1.4 model, and how these results relate to the revised design and additional analyses performed. Section 4.0 presents a new HYDRUS 2D model of the hybrid cover. Section 5.0 responds point by point to the 12 comments presented in Utah DEQ 2020. Conclusions are found in Section 6.0 2.0 Revised Federal Cell Design In the 2020 response to interrogatories, the Federal Cell cover design was revised to adopt a rock armor cover for the side slopes (Neptune 2020a). The ET cover previously analyzed for the top slopes is retained. The ET cover has been selected for its superior performance in minimizing percolation of atmospheric precipitation into the waste, while the rock armor cover has been selected for its improved assurance in minimizing the potential for erosion of the steeper side slopes. The 2020 design has been further revised as discussed below. These revisions have been carried through new and updated modeling as applicable. Updated drawings 14004-C01 through 14004- C05 are included as Attachment 1. 2.1 Embankment Footprint EnergySolutions has revised the embankment footprint in order to provide greater separation between the Federal Cell and the 11e.(2) Cell to the east. The revised footprint is slightly narrower east to west and slightly longer north to south than it was in prior drawings. The grade of the top and side slope areas is unchanged; and the thickness of the cover layers are unchanged from the drawings submitted previously. The revised embankment footprint has slightly shorter top slope lengths; and a longer embankment crest. Figure 1 shows the revised embankment footprint; Figure 2 shows the version previously analyzed. Side slope lengths are unchanged. These changes result in a peak embankment elevation at the crest that is one foot lower than that of the previous footprint1. The current embankment footprint has been considered in HYDRUS 2D modeling performed to address UDEQ comments. Prior hydrological modeling is unaffected by this change, since that was conducted as one-dimensional modeling not connected to slope length. 1 Embankment thickness is considered in DU PA v1.4 in the context of radon emanation. This is modeled as an average thickness of material between the DU waste and the surface, calculated in DU PA v1.4 to be 39.7 feet. The revised embankment footprint changes this dimension to be 39.6 feet. Clive DU PA Model—Response to DWMRC 12-3-2020 Comments 31 March 2021 8 The current embankment footprint has also been incorporated in SIBERIA modeling of erosion, with results to be presented under separate cover. Figure 1. Revised (2021) Federal Cell footprint (from drawing 14004-C01, rev 2). Clive DU PA Model—Response to DWMRC 12-3-2020 Comments 31 March 2021 9 Figure 2. Former (2020) Federal Cell footprint (from drawing 14004-C-01, rev. 0). 2.2 Top Slope Surface Layer Thickness In the 2020 design change to utilize rip rap armoring on the side slopes, the top slope surface layer thickness was increased from 6 inches to 12 inches. This change slightly increases the storage capacity of the ET cover design. HYDRUS 2D evaluation of the full hybrid cover includes this revision. Figure 3 provides the top slope layering. Clive DU PA Model—Response to DWMRC 12-3-2020 Comments 31 March 2021 10 Figure 3. Top Slope Detail (from drawing 14004-C05, rev. 1). 2.3 Transition Zone and Side Slope Frost Protection Layer The transition zone from the ET cover top slope to the rip rap cover side slope has been revised from that presented in the 2020 design. The revision moves the transition zone to the shoulder of the embankment and reduces its width. These changes were made to reduce the impact of increased percolation through the rip rap portion of the cover. Figure 4 provides the transition zone detail as currently modeled; Figure 5 displays the prior design. Figure 4. Transition Zone (2021) Detail (from drawing 14004-C05, rev. 1). Clive DU PA Model—Response to DWMRC 12-3-2020 Comments 31 March 2021 11 Figure 5. Former Transition Zone (2020) Detail (from drawing 14004-C05, rev. 0). Concurrent with this change, the material used as the Frost Protection Layer (FPL) for the side slope has been changed. The current design specifies this material to be the same bank run as used for the FPL on the top slope; where the 2020 design used native clay soils for the side slope frost protection layer. This material was changed in order to ensure consistent drainage properties from the top slope onto the side slope at this layer in the cover system. The change also improves constructability of the transition zone. As discussed in Section 4, HYDRUS 2D modeling of the full hybrid cover includes these revisions. 3.0 Results from the DU PA v1.4 Model Since initial submittal of DU PA v1.4 (Neptune 2015e), many technical issues have been resolved relating to the probabilistic performance assessment (PA) model, through the interrogatory/response process summarized in Section 1.0. In this report, Neptune presents analyses of the hybrid cover design performance in relation to the percolation assumptions and results embedded in v1.4 of the DU PA. If the hybrid cover is demonstrated to have comparable performance to that of the ET cover modeled in DU PA v1.4, then the results of DU PA v1.4 can be considered to hold as well. The Final Report for the Clive DU PA Model, Clive DU PA Model v1.4 (Neptune 2015e) provides the following summary of DU PA v1.4 results for the quantitative compliance period of 10,000 years. Additional work preparing interrogatory and comment responses after creation of version 1.4 (Neptune 2015e) have not changed the principal analysis and reported conclusions. Compliance with the performance objectives for the inadvertent intruder dose of 500 mrem in a year and for the MOP of 25 mrem in a year is clearly established for all three types of potential future receptors. This indicates that for the disposal configuration where DU wastes are placed below grade, doses are expected to remain well below applicable dose thresholds… Clive DU PA Model—Response to DWMRC 12-3-2020 Comments 31 March 2021 12 Results are also available for the offsite (MOP) receptors. None of the 95th percentile dose estimates for these receptors exceeds 1 mrem in a year, and all of the peak mean dose estimates are at or below 0.1 mrem in a year. Table ES-1. Peak TEDE: statistical summary peak TEDE (mrem in a yr) within 10,000 yr receptor mean median (50th %ile) 95th %ile ranch worker 6.2E-2 5.1E-2 1.5E-1 hunter 4.5E-3 3.8E-3 9.9E-3 OHV enthusiast 8.4E-3 7.5E-3 1.8E-2 Results are based on 10,000 realizations of the Model. TEDE: Total effective dose equivalent For those radionuclides for which GWPLs exist, as specified in the facility’s permit (UWQB 2009), results are shown in Table ES-2. For all such radionuclides compliance with the GWPLs is clearly demonstrated. Table ES-2. Peak groundwater activity concentrations within 500 yr, compared to GWPLs peak activity concentration within 500 yr (pCi/L) radionuclide GWPL1 (pCi/L) mean median (50th %ile) 95th %ile 90Sr 42 0 0 0 99Tc 3790 26 4.3E-2 150 129I 21 1.7E-2 4.3E-11 1.1E-1 230Th 83 2.2E-28 0 0 232Th 92 1.4E-34 0 0 237Np 7 1.5E-19 0 3.7E-27 233U 26 5.6E-24 0 3.9E-28 234U 26 2.1E-23 0 2.2E-28 235U 27 1.6E-24 0 2.0E-29 236U 27 2.7E-24 0 3.3E-29 238U 26 1.5E-22 0 1.8E-27 1GWPLs are from UWQB (2009) Table 1A. Results are based on 10,000 realizations of the Model. Figure 6 displays Table ES-1 dose results graphically in context with the dose limit of 25 mrem/year for members of the public under R313-25-20. Typical background radiation dose is also provided on this figure as a point of reference. DU PA v1.4 results are 2 to 3 orders of magnitude below the dose limit. Clive DU PA Model—Response to DWMRC 12-3-2020 Comments 31 March 2021 13 Figure 6. DU PA v1.4 dose results, R313-25-20 dose limit, and typical background dose. DU PA v1.4 demonstrates compliance with the dose and groundwater protection requirements of Utah regulations relating to DU disposal. The interrogatory and response process has added to the record supporting these conclusions but has not caused the quantitative model to require revision. Accordingly, DU PA v1.4 remains the basis for demonstrating compliance of the disposal facility. Compliance with UAC R313-25-9(5)(a) is affirmed by DU PA v1.4, together with the supporting documentation as supplemented by the interrogatory/response cycle. Ultimately, the DU PA v1.4 evaluates an above-grade embankment located in a terminal desert basin. Annual potential evapotranspiration in Utah’s west desert far exceeds precipitation; and the site is located above a largely stagnant aquifer in an area with limited natural groundwater recharge. Projections of negligible percolation into and through an above-grade embankment in this context are not only reasonable, they are to be expected. 3.1.1 Target Percolation Threshold Within this response document, scenarios from the comments are sometimes evaluated against a percolation criteria of 1 mm/yr. This criteria refers to the results of the DU PA v1.4XXX GoldSim model described in Neptune (2015a). ET cover percolation inputs to this GoldSim model were generated using a HYDRUS 1D model with a monolayer ET cover. In other words, 1.E-03 1.E-02 1.E-01 1.E+00 1.E+01 1.E+02 1.E+03 Mean Median 95th %ile Do s e ( m r e m / y e a r ) Ranch worker (DU PA v1.4) Hunter (DU PA v1.4) OHV enthusiast (DU PA v1.4) Dose limit Typical radiation dose in U.S. Clive DU PA Model—Response to DWMRC 12-3-2020 Comments 31 March 2021 14 in v1.4XXX, all layers of the modeled cover have identical material properties. The average annual percolation through the monolayer cover is 0.91 mm/yr using hydraulic properties generated from the Hydraulic Props Calc.xls file provided by Dr. Benson, and using inputs for a fine-grained material from Benson et al. (2011) (NUREG/CR-7028). Results of the DU PA v1.4XXX GoldSim model indicate that the Tc-99 median concentration is below the groundwater protection limit (GWPL) of 3790 pCi/L, while the mean and 95th percentile results exceed the GWPL. Rancher doses are slightly lower in the v1.4XXX model because the increased percolation suppresses upward radon flux. This monolayer ET cover scenario is not physically plausible; however, it provides a useful metric on the percolation limit at which the Tc-99 groundwater protection limit may be exceeded. The v1.4XXX results indicate that when average annual percolation exceeds 0.91 mm/yr (rounded to 1 mm/yr), mean and 95th percentile concentrations of Tc-99 potentially exceed the GWPL of 3790 pCi/L. 4.0 Hybrid Cover Performance—HYDRUS-2D Modeling The percolation results presented in the v1.4 HYDRUS modeling are based upon a 1D model of an ET cover (Neptune 2015b). This modeling effort reflects a previous design for the federal cell that included an ET cover on both the top and side slopes (see Section 2.0 Revised Federal Cell Design). It was demonstrated that in this system lateral flow would be negligible, and therefore a 1D modeling approach would be sufficient to assess cover performance (Neptune 2015f). Since 2014, modifications have been made to the Federal Cell design (see Section 2.0). The top layer of the side slope consists of 45.7 cm (18 in) riprap rock, underlain by 30.5 cm (12 in) of a filter layer. The remaining layers are identical to those specified in the ET portion of the hybrid cover (Figure 8). Additionally, the surface layer of the ET portion of the hybrid cover design increased from 15.2 to 30.6 cm (6 to 12 inches). The main concern discussed in the current comments (Utah DEQ 2020) is a need to determine whether the results presented in the v1.4 HYDRUS modeling are still sufficiently representative of cover performance, given the revised design of the federal cell cover. To investigate this concern, a 2D model of the updated hybrid cover design has been developed. The primary goal of the 2D model is to calculate percolation out of the cover above the waste zone, and to compare these results to the percolation results presented in the v1.4 HYDRUS modeling. 4.1.1 Modeling Domain A cross section of the federal cell is shown in Figure 7, including detail of the configuration of the ET cover, transition zone, and side slope in the hybrid cover design. To improve computational efficiency and reduce model run times, only a portion of the hybrid cover design is modeled (Figure 8). Only the ET portion of the hybrid cover is shortened. In the 2D hybrid cover model, 56 m of ET cover is included as well as the full 54 m extent of the side slope. The choice of this abbreviated domain was supported by several model runs with a variety of domain lengths to ensure that there were not significant boundary effects associated with the truncation. Clive DU PA Model—Response to DWMRC 12-3-2020 Comments 31 March 2021 15 Figure 7. Cross section of federal cell, including a 135 m (448.4 ft) of top slope, and detail of the transition zone of the hybrid cover design. Clive DU PA Model—Response to DWMRC 12-3-2020 Comments 31 March 2021 16 Figure 8. Full length cover design and abbreviated hybrid cover model. 4.1.2 Layering A representative view of the modeled geometry of each layer for the ET cover, transition zone, and side slope is shown in Figure 9. Because extremely coarse materials (i.e., riprap) are problematic to model when paired with an atmospheric boundary (typically requiring very small mesh refinement and/or timesteps, both which are impractical at the scale of the 2D model and length of simulation), and to simplify the model domain using only v1.4 modeling parameters, the material hydraulic parameters for the FPL are used for the top 3 layers of the side slope, as shown in Figure 9. With this parameterization of the side slope, Ksat is high enough that no runoff occurs throughout the simulation, and therefore all precipitation is accounted for in the model domain. In addition, water content on the side slope layer generally stays below 10%, thus there is no significant storage in the “riprap” or “filter” layers using this parameterization. Lastly, values of Ksat of riprap materials are typically very high, however the large pore spaces of this material will be filled in with fines over time. Therefore, any measured K for the riprap would no longer be representative of long-term conditions. For the purposes of exploring the hybrid cover design, the frost protection parameters are therefore considered appropriate for simulating the relatively higher levels of percolation expected over this portion of the cover. 190 m total length with 136 m of ET cover and 54 m of side slope 110 m total length with 56 m of ET cover Hybrid cover design Abbreviated hybrid cover model ET cover 136 m Side slope 54 m ET cover 56 m Side slope 54 m Clive DU PA Model—Response to DWMRC 12-3-2020 Comments 31 March 2021 17 Figure 9. Model layering and materials for the 2D hybrid cover. 4.1.3 Boundary Conditions An atmospheric boundary condition is used along the top surface of the model and a free drainage boundary condition along the bottom of the model, as specified in the v1.4 HYDRUS modeling (Neptune 2015b). A “No Flux” (i.e., no flow) boundary condition is used on the left boundary of the model domain and along the top of the right side of the model domain as the model pinches out, as shown in Figure 10. The HYDRUS interface includes a feature called a “mesh line” which allows the user to define a continuous series of nodes in the domain; the water flux across the surface is reported at every time step in the output. A mesh line, indicated in pink dots along the bottom of the ET portion of the hybrid cover, is used in the model to calculate the flux of water leaving the free drainage boundary condition (bottom of the lower radon barrier) for the portion that lies directly under the ET component of the hybrid cover. This line indicates the lateral extend to which waste will be placed in the federal cell (i.e., waste will not be placed under the side slope). ET COVER SIDE SLOPE TRANSITION ZONE ET COVER TRANSITION ZONE 2.1 m (7 () SIDE SLOPE 30.5 cm (12 in) 30.5 cm (12 in) 30.5 cm (12 in) 30.5 cm (12 in) 45.7 cm (18 in) 45.7 cm (18 in) 30.5 cm (12 in) 30.5 cm (12 in) 30.5 cm (12 in) 45.7 cm (18 in) Clive DU PA Model—Response to DWMRC 12-3-2020 Comments 31 March 2021 18 Figure 10. Boundary conditions used in the 2D hybrid cover model. 4.1.4 Mesh A global target mesh spacing of 5 cm is used throughout the 2D hybrid cover model domain. Additionally, three mesh refinements are specified where the target mesh spacing is set to 1 cm: 1) along the top surface of the model (atmospheric boundary) for both the top and side slopes, and 2) between the evaporative layer and the frost protection layer. This refinement is needed to model the sharp pressure head gradients induced by precipitation and evaporation at the surface, and to provide enough resolution in the model to capture the performance of the capillary break between the evaporative and frost protection layers. Due to the horizontal scale of the model, a horizontal stretching factor of 15 is used to reduce the number of nodes in the domain. Figure 11 shows a small portion of the ET side of the hybrid cover; higher densities of nodes are seen along the surface and between the evaporative and frost protection layers, as described above. Figure 11 also shows how the stretching factor can increase the horizontal distance between nodes, while maintaining the higher resolution in the vertical direction. A mesh line is used tocalculate the por2on of the free drainage fluxes out of the lower radon barrier under the ET por2on of the hybrid cover ET COVER SIDE SLOPE TRANSITION ZONE Clive DU PA Model—Response to DWMRC 12-3-2020 Comments 31 March 2021 19 Figure 11. Node spacing detail shown for a portion of the top slope. 4.1.5 Rooting Parameters A rooting depth of 80 cm is used for the ET portion of the hybrid cover (Figure 12), the same as used in the v1.4 HYDRUS modeling (Neptune 2015b). No rooting is assigned for the side slope and transition zone. As in the v1.4 HYDRUS modeling, the van Genuchten S-shaped model is used for the water stress response function for root water uptake, using the same parameterization; the default HYDRUS value of 3 is specified for the p exponent, and a value of -200 cm for the h50 parameter (the pressure head or tension at which water uptake is reduce by 50 percent) (Neptune 2015b). HYDRUS now also allows the user to specify the pressure head below which transpiration stops, known as the permanent wilting point. A tension of 50,000 cm was specified for the wilting point. This is higher than typically assigned, but it is not impactful because the S-shape water stress function discussed above effectively cuts off root water uptake at much lower tensions. For example, the water stress factor is about 0.001 at a pressure head of only -2000 cm. Since every attempt is made to make the 2D model as similar as possible to the v1.4 HYDRUS model runs, the value of h50 is specified in the 2D hybrid cover model to be identical to the value used v1.4 HYDRUS modeling (-200 cm, as indicated above). However, recent work has shown that this value is conservative for the expected soils and vegetation at the site. Additional discussion regarding the root water uptake model is provided in Section 5.12.1.1. Clive DU PA Model—Response to DWMRC 12-3-2020 Comments 31 March 2021 20 The lack of rooting parameters on the side slope was specified in order to allow maximum impact of the side slope and transition zone on the percolation out of the ET cover. In reality, riprap covers, despite their poor soils at the surface, have been shown to be effective at promoting growth of native vegetation, allowing for transpiration to occur, and ultimately reducing percolation from the cover system. Benson (2021) showed that by allowing a riprap cover to grow vegetation, percolation out of the cover was substantially reduced. Figure 12. Rooting depths shown for the top slope, transition zone, and side slope. 4.1.6 Atmospheric Input The same 100-year year repeating atmospheric record used in the v1.4 modeling is used for the 2D hybrid cover model, including daily precipitation and calculations of potential evaporation/transportation. This 100-year record was repeated 5 times in the 2D hybrid cover model in order to run the 2D models out to 500 years. 4.1.7 Initial Conditions Unique initial conditions are assigned for each model to reduce the time needed for the models to reach a quasi-steady state equilibrium (Table 1). Values are selected to allow each model to start relatively dry and to increase in water content until reaching a quasi-steady state equilibrium. The results shown in Section 4.3 indicate this state is achieved within approximately 100 years. Table 1. Tension (pressure head) used for initial conditions in each model. Values are shown in cm. Model Surface Layer Evaporative Layer Frost Protection Layer Upper Radon Barrier Lower Radon Barrier Maximum -500 -500 -500 -6800 -6800 2nd Highest -500 -500 -500 -11400 -11400 Median -1000 -1000 -1000 -12000 -12000 Minimum -1500 -1500 -1750 -78000 -78000 80cm ET COVER SIDE SLOPE TRANSITION ZONE Clive DU PA Model—Response to DWMRC 12-3-2020 Comments 31 March 2021 21 4.2 Material Hydraulic Properties The v1.4 HYDRUS modeling allows values for α, n, and saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ksat) to vary over a total of 50 model runs. Values for α and n are varied for the surface and evaporative layers, and Ksat is varied for the upper and lower radon barriers (Table 2). Values for each of the variables are drawn from unique distributions developed for each parameter (Neptune 2015b). Percolation results from the 50 unique parameter sets range from 0.0067 to 0.183 mm/year (Figure 13). To select hydraulic parameters for the 5 materials used in the 2d hybrid cover model (Figure 9), sets of α, n, and Ksat are selected from the v1.4 HYDRUS modeling. Since the 2D hybrid cover model requires substantially more computational resources than the original v1.4 1D modeling, four parameter sets from the v1.4 modeling are used to parameterize the materials in the 2D hybrid cover model. The values of α, n, and Ksat that produced the maximum (0.183 mm/yr), 2nd highest (0.0814 mm/yr), median (0.015 mm/yr), and minimum (0.0067 mm/yr) percolation are selected to parameterize the material properties of the 2D hybrid cover model (Table 3). Figure 13. Sorted results from the v1.4 HYDRUS modeling with the maximum, 2nd highest, median, and minimum percolation results indicated. Clive DU PA Model—Response to DWMRC 12-3-2020 Comments 31 March 2021 22 Table 2. Material hydraulic parameters used in DU PA v1.4 modeling. θr θs α n Ksat (VWC %) (VWC %) (1/cm) (unitless) (cm/day) Surface 0.111 0.4089 *Variable Variable 4.46 Evaporative 0.111 0.481 Variable Variable 4.46 Frost Protection 0.065 0.41 0.075 1.89 106.1 Upper Radon 0.1 0.432 0.003 1.172 Variable Lower Radon 0.1 0.432 0.003 1.172 Variable *In the v1.4 HYDRUS modeling, values are drawn from distributions developed for α, n, and Ksat. Table 3. Parameter sets for α, n, and Ksat used in the 2D hybrid cover models. V1.4 run Surface and Evaporative Layers α (unitless) Surface and Evaporative Layers n (unitless) Upper and Lower Radon Barriers Ksat (cm/day) 1D HYDRUS Results (mm/yr) Maximum #20 0.028186 1.378016 3.643845 0.183 2nd Highest #30 0.024165 1.349583 7.758327 0.0814 Median #36 0.014343 1.383885 1.005712 0.0149 Minimum #34 0.014338 1.265236 66.50366 0.00667 4.3 Results The 2D hybrid cover model results are identified using the naming convention shown in the first column of Table 3. For example, the 2D hybrid cover model results labeled “Maximum” indicates that the values of α, n, and Ksat that produce the maximum amount of percolation in the 1D simulations (i.e., 0.183 mm/yr) are used in that simulation. The same applies with the 2nd highest, median, and minimum models. Percolation out of the lower radon barrier, tension at the bottom of the lower radon barrier, and water content at the bottom of the lower radon barrier, as a function of horizontal distance along the hybrid cover, are shown in Figure 14 through Figure 16. The snapshots in time are shown at 20-year intervals for model years 120 through 220. A small representation of the abbreviated model domain is included at the top of each figure to indicate where along the hybrid cover the results reflect. The estimated annual percolation out of the lower radon barrier, for the ET cover portion of the hybrid cover design, is shown in Figure 17 through 500 years. As seen on the left side of the charts in Figure 14 through Figure 16, the abbreviated model is sufficiently large that the Clive DU PA Model—Response to DWMRC 12-3-2020 Comments 31 March 2021 23 percolation, tension, and water content are spatially constant for approximately the leftmost 10 m of the domain, which implies that the choice of domain is not creating any undesirable boundary effects. As such, conditions under the majority of the ET cover are expected to be unaffected by interactions with the transition zone and side slope. Where the slopes flatten out in Figure 14 through Figure 16, it is assumed that these conditions will continue for the remainder of the ET portion of the cover (i.e., the full 135 m proposed top slope that continues to the “crest” of the cell identified in Figure 7). Percolation out of the lower radon barrier in the unaffected portion of the model is used to estimate the average percolation out of the full 135 m proposed top slope, of which the results are presented in Figure 17. The percolation results presented in the v1.4 HYDRUS modeling (last column in Figure 13) are based on the average percolation observed during a 100-year period of time at the end of the simulations. To compare the 2D hybrid cover model results to the v1.4 results, the average percolation is computed over model years 400–500 in order to capture the range of behavior over the 100-yr precipitation record, while avoiding any transient fluxes early in the simulation associated with initial conditions. A comparison of the results is shown in Table 4. It is important to reiterate that the average percolation results shown in Figure 17 do not include the higher percolation conditions observed under the side slope portion of the 2D hybrid cover model. DU waste is not designated to be placed under the side slopes, and is proposed to be confined only to areas that are directly beneath the ET portion of the hybrid cover design. Therefore, only percolation through the ET portion of the hybrid cover design is presented here and compared to the v1.4 HYDRUS results in Table 4. 31 M a r c h 2 0 2 1 24 Cl i v e D U P A M o d e l —Re s p o n s e t o D W M R C 1 2 -3-20 2 0 C o m m e n t s Figure 14. Percolation out of the lower radon barrier, as a function of lateral distance in the 2D hybrid cover model. ET COVER SIDE SLOPE years years years years years years 31 M a r c h 2 0 2 1 25 Cl i v e D U P A M o d e l —Re s p o n s e t o D W M R C 1 2 -3-20 2 0 C o m m e n t s Figure 15. Tension at the bottom of the lower radon barrier, as a function of lateral distance in the 2D hybrid cover model. ET COVER SIDE SLOPE years years years years years years 31 M a r c h 2 0 2 1 26 Cl i v e D U P A M o d e l —Re s p o n s e t o D W M R C 1 2 -3-20 2 0 C o m m e n t s Figure 16. Water content at the bottom of the lower radon barrier, as a function of lateral distance in the 2D hybrid cover model. ET COVER SIDE SLOPE years years years years years years Clive DU PA Model—Response to DWMRC 12-3-2020 Comments 31 March 2021 27 Figure 17. Annual percolation out of the lower radon barrier for the entire 135 m length of proposed ET cover (shown in Figure 8). Results for the Maximum and 2nd highest show a minor amount of coarseness in the results after 300 years. This is due to the precision of the model output in HYDRUS, and not a change in behavior of the model. Clive DU PA Model—Response to DWMRC 12-3-2020 Comments 31 March 2021 28 Table 4. Average annual percolation out of the radon barrier (model years 400–500); v1.4 results vs 2D hybrid cover results. V1.4 run V1.4 results (mm/yr) 2D hybrid cover results (mm/yr) Maximum #20 0.183 0.395 2nd Highest #30 0.0814 0.319 Median #36 0.0149 0.111 Minimum #34 0.00667 0.202 4.4 Discussion The results from the 2D model of the hybrid cover indicate that percolation through the riprap side slope will be higher compared to the ET top slope portion of the cover. In Figure 14, the right portions of the charts show that percolation out of the side slope exceed 10 mm/yr during the model simulation. This is ultimately due to the configuration of the side slope, which lacks features such as a storage and evaporative zone (e.g., the surface and evaporative layers in the ET portion of the hybrid cover design) and a capillary break (interface between the evaporative and frost protection layers in the ET portion of the hybrid cover design). With this configuration, the side slope permits greater percolation, leading to lower tensions and higher water content at the bottom of the lower radon barrier (Figure 15 and Figure 16), and ultimately higher percolation near the transition zone (Figure 14). Figure 15 and Figure 16 show pressure head and water content for the 2D hybrid cover model domain at snapshots over a 120-year period. Throughout this period, the side slope maintains relatively lower tension and higher water content in the radon barrier, whereas the radon barrier below the ET portion of the hybrid cover shows much higher tensions and lower water content. This is due to the difference in average percolation rate of the ET portion of the hybrid cover design on the left side of the model compared to that of the side slope on the right side of the model. This results in a lateral hydraulic gradient in the radon barrier, lateral flow from right to left, and, consequently, increased percolation beneath the ET cover near the transition zone. Despite the lateral hydraulic gradient, the low conductivity of the radon barrier material does not permit enough lateral flow to cause a sizeable increase in the average percolation under the ET portion of the hybrid cover. As seen in Figure 14, percolation out of the lower radon barrier beneath the ET cover does increase near the transition zone. However, Figure 17 shows that the average percolation out of the lower radon barrier over the proposed 135 m of ET cover in the revised cover design ranges from 0.11 to 0.41 mm/yr for the four models explored. While 1D modeling performed in support of Model v1.4 (Neptune 2015d) suggested that percolation is insensitive to the saturated hydraulic conductivity of the radon barrier, in this configuration, the radon barrier provides a link between the side slope and the ET cover, and as a result, these simulations suggest that percolation associated with this flow path is quite sensitive to the radon barrier properties. Consequently, the impact of the hybrid design on the ET portion Clive DU PA Model—Response to DWMRC 12-3-2020 Comments 31 March 2021 29 of the cover appears to be most pronounced in the model realization with the highest saturated hydraulic conductivity in the radon barrier, which happened to be the “Minimum” case described above. This can be observed in Figure 14 through Figure 16. Ksat for this model realization, 66.5 cm/day, is significantly higher than the other three cases, which ranged from 1.0 to 7.7 cm/day (Table 3). All values for Ksat used in the v1.4 modeling for the radon barrier are 3-4 orders of magnitude higher than what has since been measured from samples obtained from the Test Cell deconstruction (EnergySolutions 2020). Three 5 × 10-8 clay samples (upper radon barrier) were taken from the Test Cell and submitted for analysis; the results for Ksat ranged from 0.002 to 0.012 cm/day, with a mean of 0.005 cm/day. Five 1 × 10-6 clay samples (lower radon barrier) were taken from the Test Cell and submitted for analysis; the results for Ksat ranged from 0.001 to 0.041 cm/day, with a mean of 0.011 cm/day. In comparison, the v1.4 modeling used values that ranged from 0.748 to 66.5 cm/day, with a mean of 6.76 cm/day. The steepness of the curves in Figure 14 through Figure 16 indicate that elevated percolation, water content, and lower tensions are restricted to distances close to the transition zone, with the impacts of the transition zone diminishing rapidly with distance. While the effects of the hybrid cover design are apparent in these figures, the impact is grossly overestimated as a result of the high Ksat values used to parameterize the radon barrier. The “Median” model shows the steepest decline in percolation rates away from the transition zone due to it having the lowest Ksat value of 1.0 cm/day (although this value is now considered very high in comparison to the site-specific data obtained discussed above). The results of the 2D modeling indicate that percolation rates through the ET cover are expected to remain low (Figure 17), despite the overly conservative parameterization of the radon barrier. Previous GoldSim modeling of the Federal Cell has indicated that performance criteria for the site will be met when percolation through the cover is less than approximately 1 mm/yr (Section 3.1.1). Figure 17 shows that the influence of the side slope configuration on the overall performance of the federal cell hybrid cover design is minimal, and that average percolation is expected to fall well below this threshold. If site-specific values for radon barrier materials are incorporated into the HYDRUS modeling, the influence of the hybrid cover on percolation rates below the ET portion of the hybrid cover is expected to be reduced further, and therefore the impact of the hybrid design on overall percolation is comparable to modeling used in DU PA v1.4. 5.0 UDEQ Comments and Responses Each comment is quoted in full followed by Neptune’s response. 5.1 UDEQ Comment 1: Hybrid Cover Percolation Model 1. A new hybrid-cover design is proposed and included in the Federal-Cell license application. EnergySolutions and its contractor, Neptune and Company, Inc., need to submit a supplemental document that describes and justifies with supportive analysis and calculations how results from the modeling of an evapotranspiration (ET) cover as presented in Clive DU PA Model v1.4 are applicable to this new hybrid-cover design. Within this supplemental document, identify, describe, and differentiate cover components, concepts and terminology that are applicable to Clive DU PA Model—Response to DWMRC 12-3-2020 Comments 31 March 2021 30 the hybrid-cover design and those that are being newly introduced or adapted for the hybrid- cover design. 5.1.1 Comment 1 Response Table 5 below describes the basic layering of the original design of the federal cell compared to the revised hybrid cover design. Additional detail regarding the revised federal cell design is provided in Section 2.0. Section 4.0 provides details and results of a 2D model of the hybrid cover design that compares the performance of the revised cell design to the v1.4 HYDRUS results. Table 5. Comparison of the layering on the top and side slopes of the original Federal Cell design and the revised design. Original design Hybrid cover Layer Top slope Thickness cm (in) Side slope Thickness cm (in) Top slope Thickness cm (in) Side slope Thickness cm (in) 1 Surface 15.2 (6) Surface 15.2 (6) Surface 30.5 (12) Riprap 47.7 (18) 2 Evaporative 30.5 (12) Evaporative 30.5 (12) Evaporative 30.5 (12) Filter 30.5 (12) 3 Frost Protection 47.7 (18) Frost Protection 47.7 (18) Frost Protection 47.7 (18) Frost Protection 47.7 (18) 4 Upper Radon Barrier 30.5 (12) Upper Radon Barrier 30.5 (12) Upper Radon Barrier 30.5 (12) Upper Radon Barrier 30.5 (12) 5 Lower Radon Barrier 30.5 (12) Lower Radon Barrier 30.5 (12) Lower Radon Barrier 30.5 (12) Lower Radon Barrier 30.5 (12) 5.2 UDEQ Comment 2: HYDRUS Snowmelt Algorithm 2. The efficacy of the snowmelt algorithm utilized by HYDRUS remains in question. A validation of the snowmelt algorithm utilized by HYDRUS is required and has not been presented. A validation reported in the literature for conditions representative of the Clive Facility needs to be submitted, or a regional-specific validation study needs to be conducted. It is essential that the results of the algorithm validation, literature-based or regional-specific, demonstrate the efficacy of the snowmelt model in HYDRUS for predicting snow accumulation, snow melt, and infiltration in the Clive region. The submittal of the validation document should present and explain the validation analysis and justify each of the parameters used in the HYDRUS snowmelt model based on information in the literature and/or the outcomes of the regional-specific validation. Part of a regional-specific validation may potentially be obtained by simulating hydrologic conditions with HYDRUS using meteorological data from a site in the region and/or the Clive meteorological station, where snow is known to accumulate, hydraulic properties are known (e.g., from the Cover Test Cell data), and conditions within the profile are monitored for a comparison between predicted and observed conditions. This will help demonstrate that the HYDRUS snowmelt sub-model properly predicts snow accumulation, snow melt, infiltration, measured soil-water content and soil-water storage at various depths. Clive DU PA Model—Response to DWMRC 12-3-2020 Comments 31 March 2021 31 5.2.1 Comment 2 Response This comment is addressed in three parts: (1) a literature review; (2) an attempted site-specific validation using Cover Test Cell data; and (3) correlation of snowpack data from Dugway, UT against the snowpack predicted by applying the Dugway climate data to the HYDRUS snowmelt algorithm. 5.2.1.1 Literature Review A brief literature search was conducted to assess whether the snowmelt algorithm has been validated for a comparable setting to Clive. The HYDRUS User Manual (Šimůnek et al. 2007) describes this algorithm as follows: When heat transport is simulated simultaneously with water flow and atmospheric boundary conditions, then snow accumulation on top of the soil surface can be simulated. The code then assumes that when the air temperature is below -2 C all precipitation is in the form of snow. When the air temperature is above +2 C all precipitation is in the form of liquid, while a linear transition is used between the two limiting temperatures (-2,2). The code further assumes that when the air temperature is above zero, the existing snow layer (if it exists) melts proportionally to the air temperature. No discussion of validation of the snowmelt algorithm is provided in the HYDRUS User Manual, however. The HYDRUS snowmelt infiltration routine has been reported to accurately simulate snowmelt infiltration rates when compared with measured soil water content during spring thaw for the Bucegi Mountains (Dobre et al. 2017). However, this work does not include conditions representative of the Clive facility. Similarly, Zhao et al. (2016) evaluate soil moisture and temperature simulated in HYDRUS 1D using both the snow routine and a frozen soil module against measured data for a grassland in Inner Mongolia. In this work, both the snow routine and the frozen soil module match well against measured data when the soil is not frozen; and the HYDRUS 1D frozen soil module better matches the data, particularly at an hourly level, when the soil is frozen. During times the soil is frozen, the snow routine appears to overstate soil moisture compared with the data and the frozen soil module. Summary climate data for the Inner Mongolia site is not provided; though this appears to be an arid location that could be comparable in ways to Clive. 5.2.1.2 Cover Test Cell Model Given indeterminate results from a literature review, the Cover Test Cell deconstruction data was looked to as a possible way to validate the HYDRUS snow routine on a site-specific basis. If HYDRUS could reasonably replicate the Cover Test Cell percolation data when the snow model was employed, the snow model would be considered sufficient for capturing the effects of snow formation and melting at the Clive, UT site. The Cover Test Cell was constructed just south of the proposed site for the Federal Cell, and was therefore exposed to all the meteorological impacts at the site, including snowfall, over the Clive DU PA Model—Response to DWMRC 12-3-2020 Comments 31 March 2021 32 15-year period it was monitored. The measured percolation data out of the bottom of the Cover Test Cell effectively integrated all the processes of snow accumulation and melting that would have occurred at the site during this period. Figure 18 shows the design and layering of the Cover Test Cell as it was constructed at the site. A simplified 1D model of the Cover Test Cell is constructed in HYDRUS. The snow feature is left off in one simulation, and is turned on in another. Percolation predictions from the two models are compared to actual percolation collected below the Cover Test Cell via a lysimeter tipping bucket. Figure 18. Test Cell (reprinted from EnergySolutions (2020)). Model Domain A 1D column is used to model the Cover Test Cell. Seven layers are used in the 1D Test Cell model, shown in Figure 19. Because extremely coarse materials (i.e., riprap) are problematic to model when paired with an atmospheric boundary (typically requiring very small mesh refinement and/or timesteps, both of which are impractical at the scale of the 1D model and length of simulation), the material hydraulic parameters for the riprap layer are assigned the default parameters available in HYDRUS for sandy loam in the first 15.2 cm (6 in), and sand in the next 30.5 cm (12 in), as shown in Figure 19. Default parameters available in HYDRUS are based on Carsel and Parrish (1988). With this parameterization of the riprap material, Ksat is high enough that no runoff occurs throughout the simulation, and therefore all precipitation is accounted for in the model domain. Clive DU PA Model—Response to DWMRC 12-3-2020 Comments 31 March 2021 33 In addition, water content in these layers generally stays below 10%, and therefore no significant storage occurs in these layers using this parameterization. Table 6 summarizes hydraulic properties used in the simulation. Hydraulic properties for the remaining layers are taken from EnergySolutions (2020). The Filter A, Sacrificial Soil, and Filter B layers each had a single sample taken and submitted for material hydraulic property testing, of which the results are shown in Table 1. For the clay layers, multiple samples are taken from the 5x10-8 cm/s (n=3) and 1x10-6 cm/s (n=5) layers of the Test Cell. A representative sample is selected for each layer, based the sample’s overall tendency toward the mean of each of the 5 parameters shown in Table 1. Root Water Uptake No root water uptake is specified in the model. After passing through the “riprap” layer, water continues downward through the subsequent layers and ultimately out of the bottom of the model. Figure 19. Layers in the 1D Test Cell model. Clive DU PA Model—Response to DWMRC 12-3-2020 Comments 31 March 2021 34 Table 6. Material hydraulic properties. Thickness θr θs α n Ksat cm (in) (VWC %) (VWC %) (1/cm) (unitless) (cm/day) Sandy Loam 15.2 (6) 0.065 0.41 0.075 1.89 106.1 Sand 30.5 (12) 0.045 0.43 0.145 2.68 712.8 Filter A 15.2 (6) 0.03 0.37 0.329592 2.79 1874880 Sacrificial Soil 30.5 (12) 0 0.3 0.0336735 1.18 24192 Filter B 15.2 (6) 0.07 0.37 0.0591837 4 907200 Upper Radon 30.5 (12) 0 0.39 0.000153061 1.39 0.00216 Lower 182.8 (72) 0 0.39 0.000132653 1.43 0.0020736 Node Resolution and Boundary Conditions 1001 nodes are used for the 320 cm (10.5 ft) 1D Test Cell model, with uniform spacing equating to approximately 3.2 mm between nodes. An atmospheric boundary condition is specified at the top node of the model and a free drainage boundary condition at the bottom node of the model. Atmospheric Input The same 100-year year repeating atmospheric record used in the v1.4 modeling is used for the 1D Test Cell model, including daily precipitation and calculations of potential evaporation. This 100-year record is repeated 10 times in order to run the 1D model out to 1000 years. Over this period, the HYDRUS model obtains a quasi-steady state equilibrium, from which the percolation results are based. Two simulations are performed, one with the snow model turned off, and another with the snow model turned on. Initial Conditions A pressure head of -500 cm was specified for all layers as an initial condition. Results Percolation results are calculated as the average percolation out of the system for the last 100 years of the simulation to avoid any transient fluxes early in the simulation associated with initial conditions, and are presented in Table 7. Actual percolation data from the Cover Test Cell was collected via a tipping bucket lysimeter beneath the Cover Test Cell for a 15-year period from 2002 through 2016. Monthly total tips are shown in Figure 20, with 1 tip corresponding to approximately 4.74 cm3 (0.289 in3) of water. After dividing the measured volumes by the area of the Test Cell, an average percolation rate of 0.2 mm/yr was recorded by the lysimeter tipping bucket. Clive DU PA Model—Response to DWMRC 12-3-2020 Comments 31 March 2021 35 Table 7. Results of the 1D Test Cell model. Model Percolation (mm/yr) With snow turned off 2.14 With snow turned on 5.32 Figure 20. Monthly tip data collected from the Cover Test Cell. Discussion Compared with measured data, HYDRUS overpredicts percolation through the Cover Test Cell by more than an order of magnitude in both models. However, there are several additional mechanisms that occurred in the Test Cell that are not accounted for in the 1D Test Cell model. Figure 18 indicates that the 5 × 10-8 cm/s and 1 × 10-6 cm/s clays are in direct contact with adjacent subsurface native clays, and no membrane was placed at this boundary to prevent lateral flow. The Cover Test Cell deconstruction report states that it was assumed that only vertical flow of water would occur in the test cell. This is likely not a valid assumption, given how the Cover Test Cell was constructed. Potential evaporation in the high desert environment at Clive exceeds annual precipitation by a large margin, leading to extremely dry conditions in the shallow soil environment. In contrast, the buried portion of the Cover Test Cell (5 × 10-8 cm/s and 1 × 10-6 cm/s clays) likely had higher water content compared to the surrounding soils because it was constructed of very coarse materials at the surface, having little storage capacity to hold on to and return water to the atmosphere via evaporation and resulting in higher levels of percolation. Clive DU PA Model—Response to DWMRC 12-3-2020 Comments 31 March 2021 36 This is observed in the side slope portion of the hybrid cover model in Section 4.0. That is, placing highly conductive materials with low storage capacity at the surface allows water to quickly pass through the shallow depths, and continue to deeper portions of the column where it is not subject to evaporative processes. This was likely the case with the Cover Test Cell, where increased downward flux of water through the riprap ultimately lead to higher water content (and lower tension) in the 5 × 10-8 cm/s and 1 × 10-6 cm/s clays, compared the surrounding native clays. The difference in pressure heads and water content between the clays in the Cover Test Cell and the surrounding native clays would result in a hydraulic gradient, creating lateral flow. Simply put, one of apparent reasons that the Cover Test Cell data did not record as much percolation per year as the 1D HYDRUS models predict is that a portion of the infiltrated water was likely leaving the system laterally, and therefore unaccounted for by the tipping bucket lysimeter. Another reason that the percolation data from the Cover Test Cell is lower than predicted by the 1D HYDRUS model could be the result of the establishment of vegetation and minor rooting in some of the layers of the Cover Test Cell. In the 1D HYDRUS models, no root water uptake is specified in the model. However, during deconstruction of the Cover Test Cell, a small amount of rooting was observed in the sacrificial soil layer (EnergySolutions 2020). Even a small amount of roots in the system could lead to significant amounts of water being captured and returned to the atmosphere via transpiration. Benson (2021) has shown the effectiveness of even minor amounts of rooting on the performance of covers constructed with riprap at the surface. Lastly, Figure 18 also shows a “collection drainage trough” on the left side of the diagram. The aim of this trough was to capture any excess water that did not travel downward into the 5 × 10-8 cm/s clay (the Cover Test Cell diagram indicates a 2.8% slope, and therefore some lateral flow at this boundary was expected). The data collected from this trough, however, was deemed to be of poor quality and not reliable, and therefore could not be used in a mass balance calculation. Despite the actual data not being useful in a quantitative sense, there was reasonable assurance that this trough did collect some amount of water over the 15-year period of monitoring. Therefore, it is likely that a portion of the water infiltrating through the Test Cell left the system through the collection drainage trough, and was therefore unaccounted for by the lysimeter tipping bucket data. Accordingly, the Cover Test Cell system is poorly suited to model with a simple 1D column, and attempting to address the snowmelt question via this pathway is inconclusive. 5.2.1.3 Comparison with Regional Snowpack Data An analysis is presented that evaluates how well the HYDRUS snowmelt sub-model predicts snowmelt compared with observed historical data. This analysis is presented in two parts: snowmelt and snow accumulation. Snowmelt The following is a brief overview of how the HYDRUS snowmelt algorithm operates. HYDRUS calculates snowmelt proportional to the air temperature using a snowmelt constant (M), which is the amount of snow (given in length units, such as cm of water) that will melt during one day for Clive DU PA Model—Response to DWMRC 12-3-2020 Comments 31 March 2021 37 each oC. The HYDRUS model also employs a sublimation constant (S) that accounts for vaporization that is mediated by potential evaporation. HYDRUS uses the following equation for calculation of the snow layer at time t: ℎ!=ℎ!"#+∆ℎ!−(')()!)−(*)(+!) where ht is Snow water equivalent (SWE) height of the snow layer at time t (cm) ht-1 is SWE height of the snow layer at time t-1 (cm) Δht is Change in SWE height of the snow layer at time t due to precipitation (cm) S is Sublimation constant Et is Potential evaporation at time t (cm) M is Melting constant (cm/˚C) Tt is Average daily temperature above 0˚C; set to zero if the daily temp is < 0˚C The change in snow layer, Δht, is determined by the daily temperature and precipitation. If the temperature is below -2 C, all of the precipitation is assumed to have fallen as snow and adds to the snow layer. If the temperature is between -2C and 2 C, the precipitation is assumed to have fallen as a mix of rain and snow, and Δht is reduced in a linear fashion. As noted above, the last term is set to zero if the daily average temperature is less than zero, as no melting is assumed to occur. Converting the SWE snow layer to actual snow depth requires an assumption of snow density; the HYDRUS manual recommends a ratio 10:1 (i.e., 1cm of SWE is equal to 10 cm of snow). Daily potential evaporation (PE) is calculated with values for extraterrestrial radiation and daily maximum, minimum and mean temperatures using the Hargreaves method (see Neptune (2015b) for details). HYDRUS default values of 0.43 for M and 0.2 for S are used in the calculation. This algorithm is applied to local climate data to evaluate the efficacy of this snowmelt algorithm that is used in HYDRUS. Daily temperature, snowfall and snow layer data are obtained for the nearby site of Dugway, UT (site id 422257) using the SC ACIS Tool (http://scacis.rcc-acis.org/). Observed snowfall from the Dugway site consists of the daily recorded snowfall and allow for the snow layer to increase during the 14-day period. Since HYDRUS calculates snow water equivalent, the snow layer is calculated with the rules outlined in the HYDRUS manual which uses the ratio of 1 cm snow water to 10 cm of snow. The observed snow depth data are processed to identify the 25 deepest snow layers separated by at least 14 days. The 14-day period is arbitrarily determined to balance both typical dynamics for the melt of a snowfall event at the site as well as issues associated with data gaps in the station record at Dugway. Shorter time periods enhance the impact of missing data and make meaningful comparisons more challenging. The day corresponding to the deepest snow layer is then used as a starting point to apply the HYDRUS snowmelt algorithm. Maximum daily temperature from the observed Dugway record is used in the HYDRUS-based calculation of snow melt as part of this regional specific validation exercise. Maximum daily temperatures are applied to M since daily mean temperatures appeared to underestimate melting. This is likely due Clive DU PA Model—Response to DWMRC 12-3-2020 Comments 31 March 2021 38 to the nature of the algorithm, where mean daily temperatures at or below zero fail to capture melting that occurs during warm periods of the day when temperatures exceed zero. The snowmelt equation in HYDRUS is run with the data from the Dugway site and compared to the corresponding observed data for the 14-day period following each of the identified top 25 observed snow depth events. Observed snow layers are plotted along with calculated snow layers for the 14-day periods (Figure 21 and Figure 22). Two figures with multiple panels are used for improved clarity of presentation. In these figures, the blue lines are the data for snow depth as recorded by the Dugway UT station data. The red lines show the snowmelt calculated using the Dugway UT station meteorological data fed into the HYDRUS snowmelt algorithm. Two of the 25 events were omitted due to what appear to be data quality issues. The snow layer record from 1-29-1980 through 2-12-1980 showed significant melting despite the fact that the mean maximum temperature for the first 3 days of the record was -8.52 C. Similarly, the snow layer record from 12-26-2012 through 1-9-2013 showed significant melting despite the mean maximum temperature for the 14 days being -5.30 C. Figure 21. 14-day periods of calculated vs observed snow layers at Dugway, UT in temporal order of occurrence. Clive DU PA Model—Response to DWMRC 12-3-2020 Comments 31 March 2021 39 Figure 22. 14-day periods of calculated vs observed snow layers at Dugway, UT in temporal order of occurrence. Although the Dugway record has some data quality issues including missing data, the HYDRUS algorithm performs well with respect to the estimation of the snowmelt relative to the available data (Figure 21 and Figure 22). This performance is based on both the timing associated with the initial melting and the total duration of the melting events for both the observed and HYDRUS- estimated snowmelt episodes. These figures show that for the largest melting events in the historical record at Dugway, direct comparison of the observed data with projections using the HYDRUS snowmelt algorithm driven by site-specific meteorological data show good agreement. These largest melting events are critical with respect to the subsequent accurate depiction of infiltration, measured soil-water content and soil-water storage at various depths. Snow Accumulation To evaluate snow accumulation, snowfall is calculated using HYDRUS applied to daily precipitation and average daily temperatures from the historical record of meteorological data at Dugway. Because HYDRUS calculates snow water equivalent, the snowfall is again calculated with the rules outlined in the HYDRUS manual which uses the ratio of 1 cm snow water to 10 cm of snow. HYDRUS assumes for temperatures less than -2 oC, all precipitation is snow, and for temperatures above +2 oC, all precipitation is rain. For temperatures between -2 oC and +2 Clive DU PA Model—Response to DWMRC 12-3-2020 Comments 31 March 2021 40 oC, there is a linear conversion from snow to rain (0 oC would be half and half). In this manner, the calculated snowfall is allowed to accumulate and reduce using the HYDRUS equations outlined above with maximum daily temperatures applied to M. Snow layers are calculated for the entire Dugway record (09/21/1950 – 07/08/2013) using the HYDRUS algorithm and compared to the corresponding observed snow layer. Average daily calculated snow layers are plotted along with average daily observed snow layers across the entire year (Figure 23). The HYDRUS algorithm performed well with calculated snow layers tracking along the observed values. HYDRUS does appear to overestimate compared with observed snow layers in January and underestimate in February. These values balance out when averaged from December through February with the calculated snow layer (1.21 cm) only slightly exceeding the observed snow layer (1.17 cm). Figure 23. Average daily calculated and observed snow layers at Dugway, UT. Dugway receives a reasonable amount of snowfall in February when average daily temperatures move above 2 oC (Figure 24). Under these conditions HYDRUS would not predict snowfall. Discrepancies may also occur from differences between air and ground temperature, where warmer ground temperatures should lead to more snowmelt and less snow accumulation. Colder ground temperatures might limit snowmelt when air temperatures begin to increase. HYDRUS Clive DU PA Model—Response to DWMRC 12-3-2020 Comments 31 March 2021 41 does not include ground temperatures in its snow layer calculation. Seasonal lag in ground temperatures theoretically would lead HYDRUS to overestimate snow accumulation in the early part of the winter and underestimate snow accumulation in late winter/early spring, which is consistent with the pattern seen in Figure 23. Figure 24. Daily Mean Temperature at Dugway, UT averaged across the period of record. Summary A quantitative validation of the snowmelt algorithm in HYDRUS is achieved by comparing HYDRUS-based snowmelt estimates with observed snowmelt and snow accumulation data from Dugway. The analysis of the 25 largest snow depths on record for the Dugway site focuses attention on the most critical time periods for the validation of the snowmelt model in HYDRUS. In general, the snowmelt depicted by HYDRUS tracks the observed snowmelt from Dugway quite well. Despite small discrepancies, average calculated snow accumulation matches the average observed snow accumulation. These analyses provide strong support to demonstrate the efficacy and sufficiency of the snowmelt algorithm utilized by HYDRUS. Collectively, these analyses help demonstrate that the HYDRUS snowmelt sub-model properly predicts snow accumulation, snowmelt, and hence infiltration, measured soil-water content and soil-water storage at various depths. Clive DU PA Model—Response to DWMRC 12-3-2020 Comments 31 March 2021 42 5.3 UDEQ Comment 3: Applying Cover Test Cell Data Provide a comparison of the engineering properties determined for the individual components of the rock-armored Cover Test Cell as studied in connection with its deconstruction to the properties used in the current model of an evapotranspiration (ET) cover system in the Clive DU PA Model v1.4. Report how the properties from the Cover Test Cell compare to the naturalized parameters from NUREG/CR-7028 and to those used in the most recent HYDRUS model of the evapotranspiration cover. Do an analysis using the Cover Test Cell deconstruction data in the HYDRUS model for an evapotranspiration cover: i) in as-built initial conditions , (ii) then apply a deterioration methodology that represents pedogenic evolution of the cover soils over long periods of time (e.g., due to rooting of overlying plants, burrowing by mammals or insects, frost activity, wet-dry cycling, differential settlement, etc.) representative of what is reported in the literature and available from analog studies in the region, and (iii) modify the HYDRUS model as needed to account for the hybrid cover (evapotranspiration cover on the top slope; rock-armor cover on the side slope) as currently proposed in the Draft Federal Cell license application. For each of these analyses, prepare diagrams that display predictions of soil-water content and soil- water storage at various depths. Submit the results of the analysis including an explanation of how the different cover types compare. 5.3.1 Comment 3 Response Much interesting data has been generated with the Cover Test Cell deconstruction project completed in 2019 (EnergySolutions 2020). However, the Cover Test Cell was constructed to an earlier version of the rock armor cover design used at the Clive facility; therefore, only data for the radon barrier clays is comparable between the Cover Test Cell and the ET cover proposed in DU PA v1.4. Considering that similar material properties were used for the surface/evaporative zone and radon barrier layers in DU PA v1.4, some comparison can be made with these layers as well. NUREG/CR-7028 (Benson et al. 2011) provides recommendations in Section 10.2 regarding engineering properties for fine-textured earthen storage and barrier layers that can be used in performance assessments in lieu of site-specific data. These recommendations are based on covers studied 5 to 10 years after initial construction. The Cover Test Cell was de-constructed and its material properties tested 18 years after it was placed into service; for a roughly comparable, if longer, period of system stabilization and naturalization to that evaluated in NUREG/CR-7028. Table 8 summarizes engineering properties across the HYDRUS modeling performed in DU PA v1.4 (Neptune (2015b), Tables 8 and 9); the Cover Test Cell; and NUREG/CR-7028. Average values are calculated in any cases where a range of values are provided in the source documentation and discussed in more detail below. Specifically, in the HYDRUS modeling supporting DU PA v1.4, the parameters of α and n were varied for the surface layers; and Ksat was varied for the upper and lower radon barrier layers. Other parameters were deterministic (Neptune 2015b). For the Cover Test Cell, all radon barrier values represent the average of three (for the upper radon barrier) to five (for the lower radon barrier) data points, as reported in the EnergySolutions (2020) appendix “Wisconsin Geotechnical Laboratory, Hydraulic Properties of Soils from a Clive DU PA Model—Response to DWMRC 12-3-2020 Comments 31 March 2021 43 Final Cover Test Section in Clive, Utah, Geotechnical Laboratory Report No. 20-17, 2020; Table 1.” The Cover Test Cell also returned data for that cover design’s riprap, filter zone, and sacrificial soil layers; however, the material properties for these layers do not match the ET cover design so these data are not included in Table 8. Values for NUREG/CR-7028 reflect the average of the recommended range in Section 10.2, or the recommended initial condition for PA modeling. NUREG/CR-7028 recommended values are applied to both the surface/evaporation zone and radon barrier layers. NUREG/CR-7028 does not suggest values to use for a layer such as the frost protection layer, which provides a capillary break within the cover system. Clive DU PA Model—Response to DWMRC 12-3-2020 Comments 31 March 2021 44 Table 8. Engineering properties of cover layers for DU PA v1.4, the Cover Test Cell, and NUREG/CR-7028. Design Basis Layer Input Parameter ET Cover DU PA v1.4 (actual, 50 sims) Cover Test Cell NUREG/CR-7028 Surface θr (unitless) 0.111 n/a 02 θs (unitless) 0.4089 n/a 0.4 α (1/cm) 0.0169 n/a 0.0204 n (unitless) 1.3 n/a 1.3 Ksat (cm/day) 4.46 n/a 22 Evaporative Zone θr (unitless) 0.111 n/a 0 θs (unitless) 0.481 n/a 0.4 α (1/cm) 0.0169 n/a 0.0204 n (unitless) 1.3 n/a 1.3 Ksat (cm/day) 4.46 n/a 22 Frost Protection θr (unitless) 0.065 n/a n/a θs (unitless) 0.41 n/a n/a α (1/cm) 0.075 n/a n/a n (unitless) 1.89 n/a n/a Ksat (cm/day) 106.1 n/a n/a Upper Radon Barrier θr (unitless) 0.1 0 0 θs (unitless) 0.432 0.38 0.4 α (1/cm) 0.003 0.0002 0.0204 n (unitless) 1.172 1.39 1.3 Ksat (cm/day) 6.75 5.16E-03 22 Lower Radon Barrier θr (unitless) 0.1 0 0 θs (unitless) 0.432 0.38 0.4 α (1/cm) 0.003 0.0002 0.0204 n (unitless) 1.172 1.4 1.3 Ksat (cm/day) 6.75 1.13E-02 22 A number of observations can be made from Table 8. All comparisons are limited to the surface/evaporative zone and radon barrier layers, since there is not comparable data in the test cell or NUREG/CR-7028 for the frost protection layer. 2 Inferred from Table 6.3 of NUREG/CR-7028 for all clay layers, though not explicitly discussed in Section 10.2 therein. Clive DU PA Model—Response to DWMRC 12-3-2020 Comments 31 March 2021 45 In DU PA v1.4, the value for θr is higher than that reported for the Cover Test Cell and inferred from NUREG/CR-7028. Benson et al. (2011), commonly report a value of zero for θr for all soil types. Benson’s laboratory also evaluated the soil properties from the Test Cell, and therefore, θr is reported to be zero for these soils as well. However, other well-used and well-known soils databases (e.g. Rosetta, Carsel and Parrish (1988)) do not report zero values of θr. The effect of using a zero value for θr is to increase the storage capacity of the soil. In addition, a zero value of θr will also affect the water content at which percolation occurs. Values for θs and n are comparable across these approaches/data sets, while the value for α used in DU PA v1.4 is comparable to that in NUREG/CR-7028 for the surface/evaporative zone layers. For the radon barrier layers, the value for α used in DU PA v1.4 is bracketed by those demonstrated by site-specific Cover Test Cell Data and those recommended by NUREG/CR- 7028, with the Cover Test Cell data being roughly an order of magnitude lower than modeled; and NUREG/CR-7028 roughly an order of magnitude higher than modeled. Therefore, the α used in DU PA v1.4 is nicely bounded by site-specific data, and the “generic” value of α informed by multiple datasets in NUREG/CR-7028. Finally, values for Ksat vary widely between those reported by site-specific Cover Test Cell data and those used in DU PA v1.4 and recommended by NUREG/CR-7028. The latter two values are roughly comparable, while the site-specific data is 3 to 4 orders of magnitude lower. The site- specific Ksat is very low as a result of construction specifications; and demonstrates little change from the as-built condition over the Cover Test Cell’s 18-year service life. Refer to Section 5.2.1.2 for discussion of an attempt to replicate Cover Test Cell data in a HYDRUS 1D model. Cover Test Cell data are used in that attempt; however, the results ultimately are inconclusive. Refer to Section 4 for discussion of a HYDRUS 2D model of the hybrid cover design. While Cover Test Cell data for the radon barrier layers are not directly used in the HYDRUS 2D model, they are effectively bracketed by the parameters evaluated as discussed above. 5.4 UDEQ Comment 4: Regression Model Quantitatively and rationally explain why the regression model used for abstraction of HYDRUS results into the GoldSim model is insensitive to Ksat of the cover soils. Ensure that the submitted explanation is consistent with the principles of variably saturated flow and the formulation of Richards’ Equation in HYDRUS. 5.4.1 Comment 4 Response The cover system consists of an evaporative zone composed of Unit 4 silty clay and a radon barrier composed of compacted Unit 4 silty clay, separated by the frost protection layer. The important properties of the FPL as it relates to cover performance are those that define the soil water characteristic curve, as the FPL should provide a material contrast when compared to the overlying evaporative zone; this is explored in Section 5.7.1. While the question was interpreted as referring to the top two model layers that comprise the evaporative zone, the response below begins by summarizing the results of the v1.4 HYDRUS simulations, which included variation of Ksat in the radon barrier, conceptualized as the bottom two model layers. The remainder of the Clive DU PA Model—Response to DWMRC 12-3-2020 Comments 31 March 2021 46 response addresses variation of Ksat in the evaporative zone, and describes a new set of sensitivity simulations that was prepared to explore model sensitivity to this parameter. 5.4.1.1 Variation of Ksat of the Radon Barrier (Layers 4 and 5) in Model v1.4 The set of 50 HYDRUS runs presented with the DU PA Model v1.4 included variation of saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ksat) of the radon barrier in the bottom two layers of the soil column; the Ksat values for the other three layers were not varied. The regression equations indicate that the water content in the radon barriers are sensitive to the Ksat parameter, as expressed by non-zero ,1 values in Table 10 of Neptune (2015b). Therefore, this HYDRUS model output is sensitive to the corresponding material Ksat, and this sensitivity is incorporated into the GoldSim model via the regression equations for water content. The regression equations indicated that percolation through the cover system is insensitive to the Ksat of radon barrier. This is largely due to the fact that the percolation through the cover system hinges on the performance of the capillary barrier interactions in the upper layers of the cover; this idea is explored extensively in Section 5.7.1 based on the principles of variably saturated flow. An example of conditions that would cause this capillary barrier to momentarily “break” in the v1.4 modeling during wetting events is provided in Section 5.8.1. If water penetrates the cover to the bottom portion of the frost protection layer, below the practical reach of evapotranspiration, it will eventually percolate through the bottom of the cover. The Ksat of the radon barrier governs the kinetics of the percolation in the lower portion of the cover. As such, the average water content of the radon barrier is sensitive to Ksat. If Ksat is higher, excess moisture drains more quickly through the radon barrier and the water content is elevated for relatively less time. If Ksat is lower, the equilibration takes longer, and the water content is elevated for a longer period of time; averaged over long periods (100 years in the v1.4 modeling), lower Ksat values produce a higher water content and higher Ksat values produce a lower water content. A negative value for ,1 in the regression equations captures this inverse relationship between Ksat of the radon barrier and the resulting water content of the radon barrier. 5.4.1.2 Exploration of Ksat Variation in Upper Cover Soils Layers 1 and 2 Sensitivity of Ksat in the upper portion of the cover was not evaluated in the v1.4 modeling. This parameter was fixed at a value of 4.46 cm/day for all 50 simulations. A set of additional runs was performed in the preparation of this response to explore sensitivity of the cover performance (percolation) to this Ksat in the top portion of the model. Nine Ksat values were selected based on the v1.4 distribution of Ksat of the radon barrier and applied to model layers 1 and 2. This was deemed a reasonable range for exploration given that the radon barrier layers are composed of the same source material as layers 1 and 2, Unit 4 silty clay. However, it is recognized that, for materials near the surface, saturated conductivity values are expected to be elevated compared to laboratory measurements or typical ranges associated with a given soil texture due to factors like biotic turbation and freeze/thaw cycling (Benson et al. 2011). For example, NUREG/CR-7028 recommends a value of about 22 cm/day for cover soils. Clive DU PA Model—Response to DWMRC 12-3-2020 Comments 31 March 2021 47 The nine values were selected based on a range spanning the 5th percentile to 95th percentile values of the radon barrier Ksat distribution. They were, in cm/day: 0.49, 1.07, 1.68, 2.41, 3.37, 4.72, 6.80, 10.69, and 23.25. HYDRUS runs were carried out for five parameter sets taken from the set of 50 presented in Neptune (2015b) to cover a range of percolation values in the previous modeling. Other than varying Ksat in the top two model layers, all other model parameters and structure (meteorological input, initial conditions, averaging procedure for results, etc.) are identical to the v1.4 process. The simulations selected were numbers 12, 18, 29, 30, and 36. The results of these 45 runs are presented in Figure 25. Figure 25. Percolation as a function of Ksat for 45 simulations. The results of these runs show that the lower Ksat values are associated with higher percolation. While this result may appear somewhat counterintuitive, it is important to note that in complicated unsaturated zone problems, higher Ksat does not always necessarily imply high flow through the system as it might in a saturated context. For example, in Section 5.7.1, it is noted that the frost protection layer, despite having a very high Ksat, has very low unsaturated conductivity for dry pressure head regimes, and therefore, it can act as an impediment to flow; this is the operating principle of a capillary barrier. The context here is different, but the same perspective applies: it is not appropriate to assume that higher Ksat necessarily leads to higher flow rates through the cover simply because Ksat appears as a multiplicative term in Richard’s Equation. If the system were such that the boundary conditions were, for example, fixed constant head boundaries, then this logic may apply. However, as discussed below, in this context, Ksat Clive DU PA Model—Response to DWMRC 12-3-2020 Comments 31 March 2021 48 and the boundary fluxes are interdependent, and a more accurate description of the behavior relies on understanding their relationship. In this case, the sensitivity of percolation is related to the ability of the topmost layers of the cover to convey water upward for release out of the model domain via surface evaporation. As shown in Section 5.8.1, the flow in the top two model layers is usually upward toward the surface because evaporation creates a down-to-up pressure head gradient. During days without precipitation, the pressure gradient is established by the potential evaporation and the current moisture conditions in the profile, and Ksat governs the rate at which water flows toward the surface. If the Ksat is low, less water is able to move toward the evaporative surface (the topmost node in the 1D model), and more water is retained in the profile. Subsequent precipitation events would be met with a wetter profile, and therefore, a breakthrough of the capillary barrier is more likely. The net result, in the case shown here for the ET cover design, is that lower Ksat in the upper layers ultimately result in higher rates of percolation. During and immediately after precipitation events, downward flow is also governed by Ksat of the surface layers. If Ksat is very low, the soil profile will not imbibe all of the meteoric water and runoff will occur. Runoff was indeed observed in the model output for the lowest three Ksat scenarios, though runoff events were infrequent. For example, for Simulation 12, the run with the lowest Ksat listed above, runoff was recorded for 62 days in the last 100 years, totaling about 31 cm of water, compared to approximately 900 cm of infiltration into the column. Conversely, Simulation 12 with the highest Ksat showed no runoff and 931 cm of infiltration through the top node of the model over the same 100-year period. For water that has infiltrated, its ultimate fate depends on whether the capillary barrier can maintain a pressure regime of low flow in the frost protection zone (Section 5.7.1), allowing evapotranspiration processes to dry out the upper layers of the column. These model results suggest that, for the cover soil layers, low Ksat throttles the release of water via evapotranspiration to a greater degree than Ksat inhibits infiltration via runoff. Comparing the same two model runs of Simulation 12, the low Ksat run recorded 683 cm of evaporation from the top of the model, while the high Ksat run recorded 799 cm of evaporation. In summary, Ksat in the top layers of the model is interdependent with the boundary flux at the top of the model. For very low Ksat values, this causes a throttling of evaporation that results in higher percolation. The discussion above centers on evaporation from the top node rather than transpiration through the root zone. This is because, as parameterized in v1.4, outflow from the model is very evaporation dependent due to the root water uptake parameters, which conservatively limit root uptake to a relatively narrow range of pressure heads. This idea is explored thoroughly in Section 5.12.1.1, but warrants mentioning here, because the Ksat dependence on percolation is contingent upon this conservatism. If the root water uptake parameters are relaxed as described in Section 5.12.1.1 (i.e., h50 is set to 1500 cm) for the 45 model runs, the sensitivity of percolation to Ksat disappears entirely. The results of this second set of runs are shown in Figure 26. Percolation is reduced dramatically to values resembling the lowest results from the v1.4 HYDRUS simulations. This is due to the roots providing another viable mechanism for water to leave the domain. Clive DU PA Model—Response to DWMRC 12-3-2020 Comments 31 March 2021 49 Another conservatism that was not explored here is the limiting pressure on the top model node, which HYDRUS calls “hCritA”. This is the minimum pressure head that HYDRUS allows at the top of the model and is set to -15,000 cm for these simulations. For these materials, this typically yields a volumetric water content around 14%, or about 30% saturation. This also limits evaporation at the surface conservatively with respect to percolation, as soil in top few millimeters of the cover will be much drier than this during periods of high temperature and insolation. Figure 26. Percolation vs Ksat with h50 = 1500 cm for the same 45 model runs presented above. To summarize, the sensitivity of percolation to Ksat in the evaporative zone of the model was explored by preparing a set of 45 new simulations based on the parameterization and structure of the runs presented in the v1.4 modeling. Increasing percolation was associated with low Ksat values in the evaporative zone due to its interdependence with the surface boundary evaporative flux. However, this low range of Ksat values that resulted in increased percolation do not accurately characterize the hydraulic properties of the surface soils. As described in NUREG- 7028, near surface processes will ultimately increase the Ksat of materials in the upper layers of a cover system over time. Further investigation of model conservatisms in the v1.4 model structure, which tend to suppress both transpiration and evaporation, suggests that the range of results presented in Model v1.4 is adequate to represent the range of expected behavior in the cover system. Clive DU PA Model—Response to DWMRC 12-3-2020 Comments 31 March 2021 50 5.5 UDEQ Comment 5: Hydraulic Properties Some hydraulic properties (saturated hydraulic conductivity and soil-water characteristic curves (SWCCs)) used in the PA of the evapotranspiration cover for the proposed Federal cell are based on historic data (ca. 1980s, early 1990s) obtained from laboratory tests using small specimens that do not represent larger-scale features that affect the shape and connectivity of the pore spaces in soils exposed to long-term pedogenic processes, or that yield an unrealistic representation of the SWCC at lower water contents. Since low-water-content conditions are expected for Clive’s desert conditions, particularly in the summer, this issue is important. EnergySolutions should collect and test samples of sufficiently large scale to generate appropriate saturated hydraulic conductivities and SWCC data and submit these results. If this is not possible at this stage of the project, EnergySolutions needs to incorporate the new snapshot- in-time SWCC data obtained from the recent Cover Test Cell deconstruction, at least for the radon barrier. Other relevant approaches will need to be used for overlying soil layers. Submit the results of an evaluation of hydraulic properties in relation to the above considerations. 5.5.1 Comment 5 Response The Cover Test Cell data provide contemporary snapshot-in-time SWCC data for Clive clay soils as used in radon barrier layers. These data are summarized and explored in Section 5.3.1 above. While Cover Test Cell data for the radon barrier layers are not directly used in DU PA v1.4 or the HYDRUS 2D model, they are effectively bracketed by the parameters evaluated. 5.6 UDEQ Comment 6: FPL Properties Show that the hydraulic properties assigned to the Frost Protection Layer of the evapotranspiration cover, which were obtained from the Rosetta database, are representative of long-term conditions naturally developing at the Clive site. Compare the hydraulic properties assigned to the Frost Protection Layer with the measured and/or described properties of the Sacrificial Soil Layer from the Cover Test Cell deconstruction. In answering the above questions, describe how the hydraulic properties assigned to the Frost Protection Layer, a material that has been defined with a wide-ranging gradational specification, will be consistent with the hydraulic properties of the Frost Protection Layer that is expected to be constructed given the aforementioned gradation specification. Also, discuss the inherent difficulties of constructing a uniform material from such a specification, and how consistency of layer properties will be maintained spatially and throughout time so that the conditions inherent in the PA model are realized in the actual cover system over the service life and compliance period of the proposed Federal Cell. Discuss how these properties are expected to change or degrade over time, e.g., due to extreme weather events or other phenomena. 5.6.1 Comment 6 Response This comment is addressed in three parts: (1) properties of the Frost Protection Layer; (2) construction specifications and controls needed to ensure that the as-built cover reflects the modeled properties; and (3) long-term durability of the FPL as a distinct layer over the compliance period of the Federal Cell. 5.6.1.1 FPL Properties Material hydraulic parameters for the cover layers, including the FPL, used in DU PA v1.4 are summarized in Table 2. There are two purposes for the FPL. One is to protect layers below the Clive DU PA Model—Response to DWMRC 12-3-2020 Comments 31 March 2021 51 FPL from freeze/thaw cycles, wetting/drying cycles, and to inhibit plant, animal, or human intrusion (Neptune 2015b). The second purpose is to create a strong capillary barrier that will deter downward infiltration from the surface and evaporative layer into the FPL. Smesrud and Selker (2001) and many other studies have shown that a cover design with a fine-grained layer over a coarse-grained layer provides a strong capillary barrier to restrict the flow of water. The FPL consists of particles ranging in size from 16 inches to clay size particles. In the HYDRUS model used with the DU PA v1.4 GoldSim model, the FPL was modeled as a sandy loam because a sandy loam represents a coarse-grained material with some silt and clay (Neptune 2015b). Hydraulic properties of sandy loam for the FPL were selected using the HYDRUS hydraulic properties pull-down menu, which use properties from the Carsel and Parrish (1988) database of hydraulic parameters. In order to evaluate the efficacy of the FPL in the DU PA modeling, a what-if scenario HYDRUS model was built using all properties from the Clive DU PA HYDRUS model, but with the cover layering, cover thickness, and cover hydraulic properties taken from the tailings cover design for the White Mesa Mill Site near Blanding Utah (MWH Americas 2007). The cover design from MWH Americas (2007) was selected because the two sites (Clive and White Mesa) are similar in climate and setting, but the White Mesa design does not have a strong capillary barrier (with a fine layer over a coarse layer). Average annual precipitation at Blanding and Clive is approximately 13.3 and 8.3 inches per year, respectively; the Blanding site has about 60% more precipitation that the Clive site. MWH Americas (2007) report an average flux rate through the cover system of 1E-4 cm/day (0.4 mm/yr). When the White Mesa cover layering, cover thickness, and cover hydraulic properties are used with all other components of the Clive DU PA HYDRUS model, the percolation out of the bottom of the cover is 1.2 mm/yr; two orders of magnitude higher than the average annual percolation for the 50 DU PA v.1.4 HYDRUS simulations (0.02 mm/yr). It is notable that even with less precipitation at the Clive site, percolation was higher at the Clive site with White Mesa layering than that reported for the White Mesa study (0.4 m/yr). The results of this what-if scenario model exercise demonstrate the effectiveness of the FPL in the Clive DU PA cover design. In addition, this discussion is relevant to Comment 12 discussed below, and the comparison of some western waste sites. 5.6.1.2 FPL Construction Specifications EnergySolutions has informed Neptune that this will be addressed under separate cover. 5.6.1.3 Long-Term Durability of the Frost Protection Layer Part 3 of this comment is addressed by considering the following question: Assuming distinct layers are present at the time of construction, is it reasonable to expect that those layers will persist over geologic time? In short, given the environmental and geological conditions at the Clive site, it is likely the FPL will persist. Note also that the bank run material to be used for the FPL is mined from a gravel Clive DU PA Model—Response to DWMRC 12-3-2020 Comments 31 March 2021 52 pit located at an outcrop a few miles north of the site. These materials have persisted as a distinct deposit since the beginning of the current interglacial climate cycle some 11.6 thousand years ago (Neptune 2020b). An assessment of the stability of distinct layers in the cover at the Clive begins with a review of a similar evaluation of an analog at the Hanford site. The Hanford and Clive sites share important similarities that are relevant to the potential for soil layers to mix, hence making Hanford a reasonable analog for the Clive site. At Hanford, Bjornstad and Teel (1993) found that natural processes (deflation, compaction, illuviation, cryoturbation, bioturbation) did not pose a significant threat over the next 1,000 years to the stability of engineered barriers. Their assertion regarding the lack of threat to the stability of the layers within an engineered barrier was based on: 1) the arid to semi-arid desert environment, and 2) the location of the site within a basin where significant eolian deposition of fine-grained silt occurs. These are the critical features that Clive and Hanford have in common with respect to the stability of geologic layers. Both Clive and Hanford are situated in arid to semi-arid desert environments. The arid climates correspond to low primary productivity, relatively sparse insect and mammal activity and hence, minimal bioturbation. SWCA (2011) observed limited density of diversity of vegetation with average plant species cover consisting of: 14.3% black greasewood, 5.9% Sandberg bluegrass, 3% cover each of shadscale saltbrush and gray molly. Importantly, observed ground cover was dominated by 79.2% biological soil crust which provide an effective stabilization for the soil surface. These studies also found that root densities were largely concentrated near the surface of the soil, with few large, woody roots were encountered in deeper soils. Rooting depths were shallow, with the maximum rooting depth of dominant woody plant species ranging from 16 to 28 inches. Consequently, plants have negligible impacts on soil turnover. The density and diversity of burrowing animals including ants and mammals are also limited by the environmental conditions at the Clive site. SWCA found a low density of ant and mammal burrows with an average of 24 ant mounds per hectare (9.7 per acre), with anthills covering 4.6% of the ground surface in field study sites (SWCA 2012). Most of the below ground ant nest volume is within 24 inches (60 cm) of the soil surface due to the presence of compacted clay and caliche layers. Ant nest volume and corridor densities generally decrease with depth with most of the activity occurring in the upper layers. Within the survey, four categories of mammal burrows were identified: ground squirrels, kangaroo rats, mice/rats/voles and one badger. Kangaroo rats and the mice/rats/voles represented the vast majority of identified burrows, with only 2 burrows associated with ground squirrels and 1 badger burrow identified. For the PA model, maximum burrow depth was set at 200 cm based on best professional judgment (Neptune 2015e). This depth is consistent with that used at NNSS by Wolf et al. (2005), and represents the likely average vertical extent of multiple badger excavations (Kennedy et al. 1985). Mammal burrows on average are much shallower and at the Hanford Site, small mammals generally do not burrow below 10 inches (25 cm) depth (Bjornstad and Teel 1993). Although badgers are capable of burrowing to depths over 2 m, it is thought that most “badger burrows” are enlargement of small mammal burrows that were further excavated in pursuit of prey (Bylo et al. 2014). Collectively, the results of these site-specific plant and animal surveys provide strong evidence that Clive, like Hanford, has little exposure to meaningful mixing of soil layers from either plant or animal activity. Clive DU PA Model—Response to DWMRC 12-3-2020 Comments 31 March 2021 53 Both Clive and Hanford are located in arid to semi-arid desert environments that reside in basins with significant eolian deposition of fine-grained silt. Neptune evaluated the nature, thickness, and thickness variations of eolian sediments at the upper part of the sedimentary section in 9 excavated sections at the Clive site on December 15 to December 17, 2014 (Neptune 2015c). The degree of soil development in the eolian silt is gradational through the deposits indicating soil formation contemporaneous with eolian deposition. The primary mode of eolian deposition at the Clive site is deposition of fine-grained silt from suspension fallout during episodic windstorms (Neptune 2015c). Well-developed soil horizons are not superimposed on the upper part of the eolian section. This conceptual model is supported by an analysis of a near continuous record of eolian deposition and a lack of soil formation preserved at the Clive site since the regression of Lake Bonneville below the Clive elevation (approximately 13,500 years B.P.) (Figure 27: taken from Neptune (2015c)). Ultimately, aeolian deposition acts fast enough that true soil horizons cannot form. Clive DU PA Model—Response to DWMRC 12-3-2020 Comments 31 March 2021 54 Figure 27. Reproduced from A.1 Clive Pit Wall Interpretation (C. G. Oviatt, unpublished data) and stratigraphic comparison with quarry wall studies from Neptune (2020b). Clive DU PA Model—Response to DWMRC 12-3-2020 Comments 31 March 2021 55 In summary, survey data from the site suggest that there are no plant or animal mechanism to disturb surface soil layers. This is consistent with analysis conducted for similar purposes at the analog Hanford site. An additional similarity with the analog Hanford site is the significant aeolian deposition that prevents formation of soil layers. Together these two factors strongly preclude the existence of any plausible mechanism that would significantly disturb the layers of a cover. This conceptual model is supported by the work shown from analyses performed on the site (Figure 27). Ultimately, given the environmental and geological conditions at the Clive site, it is considered likely that the FPL will persist. 5.7 UDEQ Comment 7: Capillary Break The Division is concerned that the sharp contrast in hydraulic properties at the interface between the Evaporative Zone and the Frost Protection Layer as well as at the Frost Protection Layer and the Radon Barrier result in capillary breaks in the model that may not be consistent spatially or temporally with actual physical conditions throughout the cover system for 10,000 years. Document and explain mechanistically why the water content below the Evaporative Zone appears insensitive to meteorological conditions, based on the HYDRUS simulation outputs. Document and explain what is/are the controlling mechanism(s) responsible for the apparent lack of flow across these interfaces, and how will these mechanisms be maintained or remain operative throughout the required service life and the compliance period associated with the cover. Perform sensitivity analyses with both sharper and softer contrasts in hydraulic properties (e.g., Ksat and SWCC) between the layers by systematically varying Ksat, α, and n of the Evaporative Zone and Frost Protection Layer. Document how predictions made for the cover model change if the interface with the Frost Protection Layer is removed, damaged, made more heterogeneous, or comprised of materials that soften or diminish the contrasts at the interfaces. Discuss how, if a capillary break across the interface with the Frost Protection Layer is responsible in the model for minimal downward flow, the actual variation in water contents above and below the Frost Protection Layer will vary systematically with the sharpness of the break. 5.7.1 Comment 7 Response Questions 7 and 8 center on the performance of the evapotranspiration cover system. These responses address concerns regarding the sensitivity of the flow through the cover to meteorological events, specifically describing how the cover's design functions to store and release infiltrated water in the upper layers while maintaining a steady moisture condition in the lower layers for all but the most intense storm events. The response to Question 7 lays out the theoretical basis for this behavior based on the theory of unsaturated flow, and demonstrates how model output comports with the theoretical understanding. The response to Question 8 delves deeper into the model output to further support the ideas developed in the response to Question 7, including a detailed presentation of the moisture profile's evolution in response to precipitation events. The focus of both responses is to demonstrate that, owing to the semi-arid climate and the cover design, changes in moisture content and flow are largely isolated to the topmost layers of the cover system. A brief review of the theory of operation for capillary barrier style ET covers is given below to provide context, and to build a foundation for a mechanistic understanding of the modeled behavior. Clive DU PA Model—Response to DWMRC 12-3-2020 Comments 31 March 2021 56 Capillary barriers take advantage of differences in soil water characteristic curves (SWCC) to inhibit downward flow through the cover system. These differences arise from the pore size distribution of the materials in the various cover layers. In ET covers, including the proposed cover at the Clive site, a finer grained material is typically placed on top of a coarser grained material, intentionally creating an interface of differing pore sizes. As noted in EPA (2011): The discontinuity in pore sizes between the coarser-grained and finer-grained layers forms a capillary break at the interface of the two layers. The break results in the wicking of water into unsaturated pore space in the finer grained soil, which allows the finer grained layer to retain more water than a monolithic cover system of equal thickness. The purpose of the upper, fine grained material (known as the evaporation zone in the model) is to maximize the potential for water storage to facilitate its removal by evapotranspiration, while at the same time minimizing the downward flux into the underlying coarse material (known as the FPL in the model). The fine-grained material should also have sufficient permeability to accept precipitation into the soil, in order to limit other undesirable impacts such as excessive runoff and allow for plant growth on the surface. The permeability of the material also impacts the rate at which water is redistributed in the fine-grained material due to moisture gradients, which can be important for moving water upward into the evaporative zone after a precipitation event. The goal of the ET cover design is to store all precipitation in the upper fine grained layer and make it available for removal upward out of the soil column by ET. If designed properly, and site conditions allow, no water flows through the coarse material. A lack of significant flux below the coarse layer, as can been seen in some of the HYDRUS model simulations for the Clive cover, might superficially suggest that the results are insensitive to meteorological conditions, but they are actually a product of both meteorology (e.g., potential ET, precipitation amount and pattern) and the cover design. The key questions addressed below are: 1) Under what circumstances can the evaporative zone material store and release the incoming precipitation while limiting flow to the underlying coarse material, thereby making flows in the lower cover seemingly unresponsive to precipitation? 2) Can this be explained mechanistically using the principles of unsaturated flow? 3) What are the critical material properties governing these mechanisms? The mechanics of this interaction are best understood by examining the SWCCs of the materials involved, which govern water content and hydraulic conductivity as a function of pressure head (tension). As an example, the SWCCs and properties discussed below are taken from the v1.4 HYDRUS model simulation that produced the highest percolation through the cover (simulation 20 of 50). However, the analysis can and will be applied to a variety of parameter sets as requested by the comment. Under unsaturated conditions, a coarse material that lacks a significant fraction of fine pores will not imbibe water under high water tension (negative pressure head, h) because of the small capillary forces associated with a larger pore structure. Large pores cannot hold water or support flow at high tensions because capillary forces vary as the inverse of pore radius, which implies that large pores are empty at high tension. Figure 28 shows the SWCC for the FPL as implemented in the v1.4 HYDRUS model, which used the Van Genuchten model with α and n equal to 7.5 m-1 and 1.89, respectively. Under normal circumstances, this material will be quite Clive DU PA Model—Response to DWMRC 12-3-2020 Comments 31 March 2021 57 dry in a semi-arid environment as the specific retention (i.e., the water content under only gravity drainage) is quite low. Specific retention can be approximated as the water content at a tension of 3 m (Stephens 1996), which equates to a water content only about 0.02 above the irreducible water content (θr) for this material. Figure 28. SWCC for the FPL as modeled in v1.4. For this material, at higher tensions (h), even large changes in tension result in very small changes in volumetric water content. For example, an order of magnitude change in tension from 100 m to 10 m is associated with a change of water content from 0.066 to 0.072 for the SWCC shown in Figure 28. As stated above, this is due to the lack of small pore sizes in the material. The importance of prevailing tensions in the system is also reflected in the unsaturated hydraulic conductivity function for the materials, as shown in Figure 29. Though a coarse material typically has a high hydraulic conductivity under saturated conditions (Ksat), under high tension unsaturated conditions, the conductivity can be very low. The modeled frost protection layer, for example, has a Ksat of over 100 cm/day, but at a tension of 10 m, the conductivity is virtually zero (~3E-7 cm/day). Unsaturated conductivity vs pressure head is shown in Figure 29 for the FPL and the evaporation zone as simulated in the same high percolation model simulation 20. Clive DU PA Model—Response to DWMRC 12-3-2020 Comments 31 March 2021 58 Figure 29. Unsaturated conductivity as a function of pressure head for a coarse and fine material. Note that the conductivity for the evaporation layer exceeds that of the FPL in the high tension regime down to pressure heads of about -0.6m, despite the fact that the Ksat of the FPL is nearly two orders of magnitude greater than that of the evaporation zone. At lower tensions, the larger pores in a coarse material can become saturated, and as a result the water content and conductivity increase markedly. As can be seen in Figure 28, the SWCC bends sharply at around tensions of 2 m to 10 m. An order of magnitude change in tension in this range, for example from 3 m to 0.3 m, would result in a water content change from 0.087 to 0.218, while the conductivity would change four orders of magnitude from about 4.5E-5 cm/day to 4.9E-1 cm/day. The dramatic increase in conductivity is due to the fact that frictional forces vary inversely with the fourth power of the pore radius. Thus, the range of tensions maintained in the frost protection zone and at the interface with the evaporation zone will be of critical importance to the flow through it, as lower tensions would engage larger pores in flow and storage. Water coming downward through the cover would have to generate a large enough pressure pulse to overcome the difference in capillary forces between the fine and coarse layers in order to fully penetrate the cover system. Stephens (1996) summarized this effect as follows: Clive DU PA Model—Response to DWMRC 12-3-2020 Comments 31 March 2021 59 Owing to heterogeneity, the downward percolation of water or redistribution may virtually cease where the infiltrated water migrating through a fine soil encounters a dry and relatively uniform, coarse textured layer. This occurs when the pressure head in the water pulse is not sufficiently great to force water to enter the large pores of the coarse soil. This can also be observed through the lens of specific moisture capacity, which is defined as the first derivative of the SWCC with respect to pressure head (dθ/dh), and interpreted as the volume of water released or taken into storage per unit change in pressure head. The specific moisture capacity for the FPL is shown in Figure 30. Note that for tensions above about 2.5 m, the specific moisture capacity is essentially zero, meaning that little water is taken or released from storage despite potentially large changes in pressure. The value of the pressure head associated with this threshold depends, of course, on the SWCC for the material. However, any coarse material suitable for a capillary barrier will have similar-shaped SWCC and specific moisture capacity. Figure 30. Specific moisture capacity for the FPL as modeled in v1.4. The cover performance thus hinges on whether the evaporative zone can store and release the incoming precipitation while maintaining sufficiently high tensions such that the coarse material cannot store or conduct a significant amount of water. If tension deviations occur at significantly higher values, (i.e., to the right side of the specific moisture capacity curve in Figure 30), then we should expect the flow through the FPL and below to be insensitive. Figure 31 shows this behavior in the model output for Simulation 20. Fifty years are shown, including a notably wet period beginning at around model year 890. The tension at the interface Clive DU PA Model—Response to DWMRC 12-3-2020 Comments 31 March 2021 60 of the evaporative zone and FPL (green curve) is constantly changing as water is moved in and out of the model domain via precipitation and evapotranspiration. The flux through the FPL (blue curve) is insensitive to most of the oscillations, except when the tension dips to around 250 cm or below (red line). For those periods, we see a response in the flow through the frost protection layer, as predicted by examination of Figure 30. At around model year 890, there are two significant drops in tension, with the second drop down to around 100 cm. This produces the most significant downward flux in the period shown. Figure 31. Evaporation zone pressure head and flux through the FPL vs time for a wet period in Simulation 20. The red dotted line is drawn at a pressure head of -250 cm. Flux values are negative for downward flow. While the above discussion focuses on the SWCC for the coarse frost protection layer, the SWCC of the finer evaporation zone material also warrants discussion. In fact, the regression model in the DU PA Model v1.4 reflects that percolation is sensitive to the SWCC parameters in the evaporation zone. This can be understood in the context of the threshold effect described above for the coarse layer. For the cover to perform effectively as a capillary barrier, the evaporation zone needs to store and release infiltrated water while maintaining a range of pressure heads that preclude flow in the underlying frost protection layer. Performance can thus be estimated by evaluating how much water can be stored in the evaporative zone while keeping tensions below this critical range. Figure 32 shows the SWCC for the FPL along with the evaporation zone layer for two different simulations from the v1.4 modeling. Clive DU PA Model—Response to DWMRC 12-3-2020 Comments 31 March 2021 61 Figure 32. SWCCs for the FPL and two realizations of the evaporation zone layer. The tan horizontal line is drawn at a tension of 250 cm, while the dotted lines indicate the corresponding water content for the evaporative zone curves. Examination of Figure 32 shows that, at a tension of 250 cm, the volumetric water content of the evaporation zone in simulation 6 (red) would be at around 38%, while the water content for the evaporation zone in simulation 20 (blue) would be around 28%. Viewed through this lens, it is not surprising that the resulting percolation in simulation 6 was much lower than in simulation 20 (7.9E-3 mm/yr and 1.8E-1 mm/yr, respectively), as the evaporation zone in simulation 6 can store much more water before significant breakthrough of the FPL occurs. This is precisely the effect mentioned in the question as the “sharpness of the break” in material properties. The 50 simulations performed to support Model v1.4 each had a different SWCC for the evaporation zone, and thus comprise a systematic set of simulations that vary the sharpness of the material contrast at this interface. The regression equations for percolation and water content incorporate these relationships. The parameters of the van Genuchten SWCC model are θs, θr, α, and n. The first two specify the saturated and residual water contents, respectively, which define the endpoints at either end of the SWCC as shown in Figure 32. The remaining parameters define the shape of the intervening curve. Alpha can be simply interpreted as inversely Clive DU PA Model—Response to DWMRC 12-3-2020 Comments 31 March 2021 62 proportional to the pressure head at which the inflection point on the right side of Figure 32 occurs, commonly known as the air entry pressure head. Simulation 20 has a higher α (0.028 1/cm) than Simulation 6 (0.011 1/cm), and, therefore, a lower air entry pressure. The n parameter is related to the grain size distribution, and can be simply interpreted as inversely related to the slope of the central portion of the SWCC. For example, the FPL has the highest n value in Figure 32 (1.89, vs. 1.28 and 1.38 for simulations 6 and 20, respectively) and, therefore, the least steep slope in the central portion of the curves pictured. With these relationships in mind, close examination of Figure 32 would predict that the best performing evaporative zone materials should have low α and low n, as these properties would be most conducive to water storage while maintaining relatively high pressure heads (i.e., pushing the evaporation zone curves up and to the right in Figure 32). Conversely, based on Figure 32, poor performance would be associated with high α and high n. These relationships manifest in exactly this fashion the regression equations of Model v1.4, which associate higher α and higher n in the evaporation zone with increased percolation. These relationships would be reversed, of course, when discussing the properties of the frost protection layer, in which high α and high n are desirable for limiting percolation. In summary, a mechanistic explanation for the capillary barrier performance is presented based on the theory of unsaturated flow. Insensitivity of conditions in the lower portion of the cover to meteorological forcing is the expected and intended behavior in such a cover design, as the evaporative zone stores and releases water while maintaining a pressure regime in which the coarse underlying materials do not allow flow. An example of the predicted behavior in the model output was presented. The sensitivity of the sharpness of the material contrast was evaluated in the 50 simulations performed for v1.4. The relationships predicted by the regression equations comport with the predictions of the analysis of the system dynamics based first principles of unsaturated flow. As suggested by the question, the material contrast is fundamental to the performance of the cover system. 5.8 UDEQ Comment 8: Water Balance Graphs Provide annual water balance graphs over a 10-year period for each of the model layers, in addition to water balance graphs provided earlier. Some graphs should lead up to and follow extreme weather events, and all should have sufficient detail so that the mechanisms controlling flow can be understood and validated. 5.8.1 Comment 8 Response Building on the theory presented in Section 5.7.1, plots of tension, water content, and upward/downward fluxes are provided for v1.4 simulation #20 to demonstrate the mechanisms controlling flow through the top slope ET cover materials through time. As discussed in the Section 5.7.1, a capillary barrier is created by placing a fine-grained material (evaporative zone layers) on top of a coarse material (frost protection layer). This configuration is of critical importance to the performance of the ET cover design for the site; the capillary barrier prevents water from traveling downward into the radon barrier clays, allowing water to be stored in the evaporative zone where it is subject to evapotranspiration processes. The capillary barrier is formed due to the differences in soil water characteristic curves of the material that arise from different pore size distribution of the materials. In this section, the mechanisms controlling flow Clive DU PA Model—Response to DWMRC 12-3-2020 Comments 31 March 2021 63 across this critical barrier are discussed using the output of observation nodes placed at key locations within the model column. The model output shows that the capillary barrier is effective at preventing water from passing through it, however during rare and extreme wetting events, conditions may develop that result in a “break” of the capillary barrier. A 10-year period is selected, from model years 390 to 400, over which one large (2.7 cm) storm and several successive moderate (0.5 cm) precipitation events occur during the Fall/Winter cycle of model years 390/391. This 2.7 cm storm is the 4th largest storm in the 100-year record, surpassed only by three slightly larger storms approximately 2.77 cm in magnitude. The effects of this single large storm, followed by several moderate storms, can be observed from the output provided by observation nodes placed within each layer that output daily values of tension, water content, and flux. Figure 32 compares the SWCC for the FPL and evaporative layer and indicates that in order to have communication between these layers, the tension must be lowered to approximately 250 cm in the evaporative zone. It is only at this point that the large pores of the FPL become available to transmit water, and the hydraulic conductivity of the FPL is high enough to transmit water. During this 10-year period, the capillary break is “broken” through the reduction of tension in the evaporative layers to less than 250 cm, resulting increases in water content and elevated downward fluxes in the frost protection and radon barrier layers. Previously, only 6 observation nodes were used in the v1.4 models, one at the center node of each layer, and one additional observation node at the bottom of the model (indicated with red squares in Figure 33). An additional 9 observation nodes were added in the domain, one additional at the top and bottom nodes of each layer (indicated with black circles in Figure 33). Clive DU PA Model—Response to DWMRC 12-3-2020 Comments 31 March 2021 64 Figure 33. Additional nodes were added to the model domain to improve detail in the output for each layer. Red dots represent observation nodes used in DU PA v1.4; black circles represent the additional nodes. Water content output from the observation nodes for selected days around the large 2.7 cm storm is shown in Figure 34. Model day 142729, the blue line, is the day that precedes the storm. While elevated water content can be observed in the lower portion of the evaporative zone (approximately 20-45 cm below the surface) from previous precipitation events, water content is comparatively lower at the surface. On model day 142730, when the 2.7 cm storm occurs, water content suddenly increases to almost 40% at the surface of the model, while the lower nodes are largely unchanged. Three days later (model day 142733) strong evaporative processes at the surface have lowered the water content in the upper portion of the evaporative zone (approximately 0-20 cm below the surface), and the pulse of water can be seen via elevated water contents in the lower portion of the evaporative zone (approximately 20-45 cm below the surface). After an additional 3 days (model day 142739) the surface has returned to a water content similar to that before the storm, and the pulse of water can be seen lower into the evaporative zone. Despite the magnitude of this large storm, elevated levels of water content are only observed in the evaporative zone. This pattern of wetting and subsequent drying out of the evaporative zone, without appreciable impact to water content in the frost protection layer, is how the cover system has been designed to work, and this pattern repeats throughout the climate record. However, prolonged periods of high precipitation frequency and low evapotranspiration can exceed the evaporation zone’s capacity to store and release water without inducing flow in the Clive DU PA Model—Response to DWMRC 12-3-2020 Comments 31 March 2021 65 FPL, which ultimately results in drainage out of the lower clay layers; the moisture profiles in Figure 35 show one such instance. As Section 5.7.1 indicates, increased flow between the evaporative and frost protection zones occurs when the tension in the evaporative zone is lower than approximately 250 cm. On day 142870, water content at the top of the FPL is at its maximum following a particularly wet period in the meteorological record, and output is shown in 10-day increments thereafter. With each 10-day increment, water content increases in the lower portion of the FPL as water moves downward from the evaporation zone. These two moisture profiles show two distinct behavior patterns of the cover over short timescales. In Figure 34, moisture fluctuations are limited to the evaporation zone, while in Figure 35, a pressure pulse results in percolation through the frost protection layer. To appreciate how these patterns manifest at the broader timescales, the figures and discussion that follow show similar behavior playing out over periods of years, and contextualize them further by the inclusion of the corresponding meteorological record. Figure 34. Water content at observations nodes on selected days around a large 2.7 cm storm event. Clive DU PA Model—Response to DWMRC 12-3-2020 Comments 31 March 2021 66 Figure 35. Water content at observations nodes following a period of high precipitation frequency that results in flow through the frost protection layer. Daily output for the ten model years (model years 390 to 400) of water content in the top, middle, and bottom nodes of each layer for v1.4 simulation #20 is shown in Figure 36. In the upper portion of the figure, the horizontal bands of colors represent water content as it changes through time. Red colors indicate approximately 10% volumetric water content, green colors 20%, blue 30%, and purple approaching 40%. In the lower half of the figure the daily precipitation and calculated PET record input to the model is provided. Figure 37 provides daily tension in each observation node through time. Tension is shown on a log10 scale due to the wide range of tensions present across the cover materials at any particular time during the simulation. Yellow colors represent tension of approximately 100 cm, blue colors represent tensions greater than 1000 cm, and purple indicates tensions over 10,000 cm. For a closer look at annual cycles in the model, the first three years are selected of the ten shown in Figure 36 and Figure 37. Water content and tension are shown for this three-year period in Figure 38 and Figure 39, respectively. Additionally, the upward and downward daily fluxes are shown in Figure 40 and Figure 41. 31 M a r c h 2 0 2 1 67 Cl i v e D U P A M o d e l —Re s p o n s e t o D W M R C 1 2 -3-20 2 0 C o m m e n t s Figure 36. Ten years of daily water content in the v1.4 simulation #20 model. 31 M a r c h 2 0 2 1 68 Cl i v e D U P A M o d e l —Re s p o n s e t o D W M R C 1 2 -3-20 2 0 C o m m e n t s Figure 37. Ten years of daily tension in the v1.4 simulation #20 model. Clive DU PA Model—Response to DWMRC 12-3-2020 Comments 31 March 2021 69 Figure 38. Three years of daily water content in the v1.4 simulation #20 model. Figure 39. Three years of daily tension in the v1.4 simulation #20 model. Clive DU PA Model—Response to DWMRC 12-3-2020 Comments 31 March 2021 70 Figure 40. Three years of daily (upward) fluxes in the v1.4 simulation #20 model. Figure 41. Three years of daily (downward) fluxes in the v1.4 simulation #20 model. The pink line in the lower portion of the figures show the calculated daily PET, which can be used to orient the reader to where the seasons are along this time series. PET is highest in the summer, and lowest in the winter. Therefore, as indicated on the charts, this three-year period begins in the winter of model year 390, and after three years terminates at the end of the fall of model year 392. Clive DU PA Model—Response to DWMRC 12-3-2020 Comments 31 March 2021 71 Early in the precipitation record, a large 2.7 cm storm occurs over a single day in the early fall of model year 390. Following this large event, water content increases and tension decreases in the surface and evaporative layers as the water is taken into storage (Figure 38 and Figure 39). Strong downward fluxes are observed in the shallow layers immediately following this large precipitation event (Figure 41). However, despite this large addition of water to the evaporative zone, the tension in the evaporative layer remains relatively high. Green colors indicate the tension remains well above the 250 cm threshold needed to break the capillary barrier in this configuration (Section 5.7.1); bright green colors correspond to approximately 600–800 cm. While this storm is particularly large in magnitude, it takes place at a point in the year following the warm and dry summer. The summer period has left the upper layers with higher tensions and low water content, with the ability to absorb this large 2.5 cm precipitation event without reducing the tensions sufficiently (i.e., below approximately 250 cm) to cause a “break” in the capillary barrier. Following the large 2.7 cm storm in the fall of model year 390, the winter of model year 391 contains a series of moderate storms (approximately 0.5 cm) that build upon the wet conditions established by the large 2.7 cm storm, and cause a break in the capillary barrier. The capillary break is identified in Figure 38 where a noticeable increase in water content occurs in the frost protection layer, yellow colors corresponding to approximately 12%. This same instance is indicated in Figure 39 where the yellow colors indicate tension has been reduced to around 100 cm, allowing communication between the layers as predicted by Figure 32. Following the winter of model year 390, the surface and evaporative layers return to lower levels of water content and high tension as PET increases and dries out these layers. During this period, upward fluxes are observed in the evaporative zone (Figure 40). While conditions in the evaporative zone return to tensions that prevent significant communication between the evaporative and frost protection layers, elevated downward fluxes are observed in the radon barrier for at least one year (Figure 41). The following winter of model year 391/392 is not as intense as the previous winter. Water content in the evaporative zone remains low enough that tensions are maintained well above the 250 cm threshold, and little communication is seen between the evaporative zone and the frost protection zone. 5.9 UDEQ Comment 9: Abstraction Model Demonstrate the efficacy of the abstraction model used to determine percolation rates used in GoldSim by conducting an independent set of blind-forward simulations with HYDRUS over a broader range of conditions to represent the range of percolation rates in the abstraction model. Directly compare percolation rates from the independent forward simulations to those predicted from the abstraction model for the same conditions. 5.9.1 Comment 9 Response The purpose of this analysis is to demonstrate the efficacy of the abstracted regression model used to determine percolation rates used in the GoldSim v1.4 PA model. This was accomplished by running an independent set of blind-forward simulations in HYDRUS for a set of relevant input values that represent the range of percolation rates in the abstracted regression model. Clive DU PA Model—Response to DWMRC 12-3-2020 Comments 31 March 2021 72 Regression equation (41) from the unsaturated zone modeling white paper (Neptune 2015b) is presented here: !"#$%= −0.32921 +5.56826 ∗4 +0.19538 ∗" Where Infil is the net infiltration through the cover (percolation) in mm/yr. The percolation rates from the blind-forward HYDRUS runs were then compared to those predicted from the abstracted regression model for the same conditions. Regression models are only ever considered appropriate or relevant for the range of the data for which they are fit. Extrapolation of a regression equation outside the range of the data is usually discouraged or inappropriate. Even within the range the uncertainty is greater at both ends of a regression model than in the middle, largely because there is more information (data) relevant to fitting the middle as the tail data is usually sparser. In addition, the lack of correlation between parameters in the HYDRUS model can cause implausible combinations of inputs, which can result in outlier effects. Consequently, 10 blind-forward runs were made to cross-validate the regression model used in the GoldSim v1.4 PA model that come from within the range of the response (percolation) realizations, and to also avoid the potential for outliers that might arise from unlikely combinations of inputs to unduly influence the regression. The regression in the equation above was based on 50 HYDRUS runs, 90 percent or more of which have percolation that ranges from about 0.02 to 0.1 mm/yr. This was the focus of this effort to demonstrate through cross-validation that the regression equation is reasonable. Section 5.11 addresses concerns about the tails of the distribution of percolation and water content in each cover layer in HYDRUS compared to GoldSim. The simulated GoldSim model has longer tails because thousands of realizations are obtained, in which case the realizations reach further into the tails of the input distributions. The runs that are far into the tails of the inputs are much more unreliable than those from the center and stretch the regression equations for percolation and water content beyond the range of the inputs for the abstracted regressions. This response focuses on results that are considered more reliable because they do not represent combinations of inputs from the tails of their distributions. Ten random draws from the distributions of the 4 and n parameters used in the regression were generated from within the output range of percolation rates from 0.02 to 0.1 mm/yr. These were then fed into both the HYDRUS model and the regression equation presented above. Table 9 presents the values for 4 and n, and the resulting percolations from both-HYDRUS and the abstracted regression equation. Clive DU PA Model—Response to DWMRC 12-3-2020 Comments 31 March 2021 73 Table 9. Random sample from trimmed set of values for α, n, and percolation from both HYDRUS and the regression model. α (1/cm) n Percolation Regression Percolation HYDRUS 0.019924 1.385094 0.052351 0.0562 0.029998 1.278558 0.013219 0.0232 0.016467 1.281967 0.018487 0.0251 0.011261 1.402093 0.062961 0.0542 0.010965 1.295776 0.008608 0.0233 0.01874 1.315412 0.012952 0.0231 0.017969 1.382271 0.068538 0.0844 0.011956 1.323457 0.013646 0.0238 0.026246 1.399699 0.032545 0.0322 0.011679 1.320503 0.032144 0.0307 Figure 42 shows that the output from these 10 blind forward realizations from HYDRUS provide general agreement with the values produced by the regression model. These blind forward runs indicate that the abstracted regression equation is reasonable for the range of data that are important in the GoldSim v1.4 PA model. Clive DU PA Model—Response to DWMRC 12-3-2020 Comments 31 March 2021 74 Figure 42. Scatterplot of percolation values computed from both the regression model and HYDRUS using the same pairs of α and n that were randomly generated. 5.10 UDEQ Comment 10: Characterizing Uncertainty The standard error of the mean is used to account for uncertainty in input parameters in the PA models. Provide the rational basis for the appropriateness of this approach to characterize uncertainty, including appropriate documentation of supporting information from the hydrologic literature specific to unsaturated flow and vadose-zone processes. 5.10.1 Comment 10 Response A challenge with the development of probabilistic PA models is putting the right numbers in the model. Despite the existence of information that can be used to characterize aspects of input distributions, aggregating information from sources with varying spatial and temporal scales to meet the needs of a PA model is non-trivial. PA models represent processes with varying intrinsic temporal and spatial scales, yet PA models cover large spaces (volumes or areas) and are run for thousands of years. Available data typically do not correspond to the spatial and temporal resolution of a PA model. Data gleaned from literature review generally correspond to points in time and space and as such, characterize variability associated with the underlying populations. (Blöschl and Sivapalan 1995) address this issue using the framework that distinguishes among the process scale, observation scale and modeling scale. We consider the Clive DU PA Model—Response to DWMRC 12-3-2020 Comments 31 March 2021 75 observation scale to be equivalent to the population distribution. In this context, informing PA models with population distributions can grossly over-represent the variability of input parameters within the context of the spatial and temporal resolution of a PA model. Consequently, the development of input distributions for PA models involves scaling the available data such that larger spatial and temporal domains are characterized. A number of different approaches have been assessed to accommodate the depiction of processes with varying spatial and temporal scales in modeled systems (Arora et al. 2019; de Rooij 2011; Rödenbeck et al. 2001; Yang et al. 2017). This issue can be addressed by running PA models in one of two ways: 1) by drawing random numbers from input distributions at every time step or, 2) by selecting a random realization from each input parameter distribution at the beginning of time and applying that value throughout time. These two ways of modeling are sometimes called fast and slow models in the literature on stochastic averaging, where it is understood that fast models are approximations to slow models and are formed through averaging processes (cf., Thompson et al. (2015)). Complex models that have disparate process, observation and modeling scales require either downscaling or upscaling to ensure that the models properly characterize the data when forming input distributions for the model. For PA models it is almost always the case that spatial and temporal upscaling is needed. This issue is also addressed in NUREG/CR 6805 (Neuman et al. 2003). As described in the literature, including the cited references herein, there are several reasons why stochastic averaging is considered necessary and appropriate. Similarly, the Goldsim PA model built for this site does not allow for option #1 for several somewhat related reasons: i. the relative computational intractability; ii. these types of models are often called “systems-level” models and are aimed at the needs of decision making under uncertainty, in which case it is uncertainty in parameters that is of importance in the context of the decision to be made; and, iii. the complications this approach causes for global (simultaneous) sensitivity analysis of a probabilistic model. Consequently, #2 must be addressed. This problem is common to all complex modeling of which PA modeling is only one. With approach #2, the input distribution must reflect values that are plausible across the duration of the simulation period. Clearly in this case, using the underlying distribution of data is inappropriate. For example, when a value representing the 99th percentile of the underlying distribution of the data is selected for use throughout the simulation period, this corresponds to a highly improbable outcome. In fact, comparing this to case #1 where draws from input distributions are selected randomly at each time step, this corresponds to a probability of: (1-.99)^(length of simulation) If 1,000 years are simulated, this corresponds to what is effectively a zero-probability event. Hence, when approach #2 is used, input distributions need to be scaled in such a way that there is lower variability relative to the distribution of the underlying data. When assumptions of linearity and stationarity are applied, then simple averaging provides an exact solution for this type of scaling. That is, characterizing the input distribution to a linear and Clive DU PA Model—Response to DWMRC 12-3-2020 Comments 31 March 2021 76 stationary model using the mean and standard deviation of the mean (i.e., standard error) of the available data can be shown to be analytically correct. In this sense, correct implies that this approach can be shown to provide unbiased estimates for the mean and variance of the output of interest. This type of analytical analysis helps inform the approach for scaling input distributions for parameters in PA models. As more complex non-linear functions are considered, the results and determination of a best approach become less clear. Exploring this with both analytical and simulation approaches for non-linear functions shows that simple averaging can provide a biased estimate of the mean and variance in the output (Black et al. 2019). For example, when a quadratic function is considered, application of simple averaging results in an estimate of the mean of the process of interest was biased by approximately 3%. Similarly, for this same case the estimate of the variance of the process of interest was biased by approximately 2.5%. These results are consistent with the work of Vogel et al. (1991), who considered the space-time variability of soil hydraulic properties. Black et al. (2019), also explored the more general case where the function of interest consists of the product of two independent variables. Similar results were found that using the simple averaging approach for characterizing the input distributions results in a small bias in the estimates of both the mean and the variance. While this is an area of active research with respect to the implementation of scaling approaches for input distributions for PA models, these results provide important context regarding the use of the standard error of the mean is used to account for uncertainty in input parameters in the PA models. There are many complex functions and relationships embedded within PA models. Functions that are multivariate, highly non-linear, and involve differential equations, exist in PA models. Ultimately, the aggregate impact of all the functions within a PA model is the function of interest with respect to assessing the impact of different approaches to scaling. Of comfort for the GoldSim DU PA model is that the form of the marginal relationship between the most important/sensitive input parameters and a response of interest in a PA model lies somewhere between a linear and quadratic (Neptune (2015e), Figures 7 and 8). That is, these types of complex models are ultimately dependent on only a few input variables for a specific endpoint. Given this, the impact of scaling with the standard error of the mean to account for uncertainty in input parameters is a slight bias in the estimation of the mean and the variance. Ultimately, scaling of some form must be performed to avoid adversely impacting decisions, because, otherwise, uncertainty will almost certainly be over-estimated, perhaps severely, and PA decisions risk being made based on values from the tails of the output distributions. Ultimately, there are no analytical solutions for upscaling for non-linear non-additive models. PA models tend to be highly non-linear and highly multiplicative. The issue has been recognized more generally (see references as examples), and research in this area continues to be performed in various institutions around the world. However, for now there are no simple solutions. Neptune will continue to perform its own research in this area and has made some breakthroughs with the use of a novel statistical approach, but this research is not complete. For the current GoldSim PA model, completed more than five years ago, the best available methods were used, and not much has changed since, especially with respect to PA in general. Clive DU PA Model—Response to DWMRC 12-3-2020 Comments 31 March 2021 77 As noted in NUREG/CR 6805 (Neuman et al. 2003), upscaling is necessary. Also, simple averaging tends to be a very powerful process, in which case the complexity of PA models might include trade-offs in negative and positive bias so that the center of the probabilistic output is reasonable. Tail behavior in the output of non-linear multiplicative PA models is probably more adversely affected than the centers of the output distributions, but there are other issues in PA modeling related to lack of correlation structure that probably create more extreme tail effects. Lack of correlation structure between input variables, and lack of autocorrelation across time almost certainly leads to more extreme tail effects than the upscaling effect of non-linear and multiplicative relationships. Consequently, it is reasonable to consider the tails, and especially the upper tails, outside the range of reasonable results. In effect, the center of the output of PA models is probably far more reliable than the tails. A further issue that suggests that upscaling using simple averaging might often be sufficient is that global sensitivity analysis of complex models always reveals only a few input parameters that are sensitive for a given output of a PA model. Consequently, it is scaling of those few inputs that matters the most. When addressing the few inputs parameters that are sensitive, the lack of analytical solutions for scaling non-linear multiplicative models is not as severe as it might first seem. Often the response variable of interest is explained in large part by a linear relationship with the most sensitive input parameters. For complex models such as PA models, scaling must be done to rectify spatial and temporal scale differences between processes, observations and models. To not do so would result in far more problems in a PA model than arise from using averaging as a simple approach to scaling. 5.11 UDEQ Comment 11: Tails of the Distribution Explain mechanistically why tails of the distribution for water content predicted in GoldSim differ from those predicted by HYDRUS. Demonstrate that the tails of the distribution for water content are properly accounted for in GoldSim. 5.11.1 Comment 11 Response It appears that this comment relates to Figure 26 provided in the 2018 response to interrogatories (EnergySolutions 2018). Figure 43 below reproduces that figure. Clive DU PA Model—Response to DWMRC 12-3-2020 Comments 31 March 2021 78 Figure 43. Comparison of Bingham Environmental (1991) water content data with water content calculated using the regression equation for the DU PA GoldSim model and with the results of the 20 HYDRUS simulations. Figure 26 of EnergySolutions (2018). Figure 43 was created in context with an interrogatory relating to DU PA v1.2; and thus plotted Bingham Environmental (1991) data against those HYDRUS and GoldSim simulations (i.e., associated with DU PA v1.2; which has since been superseded by DU PA v1.4). This figure does not accurately reflect the state of DU PA v1.4 in terms of the relationship between the water content predicted by GoldSim against that predicted by HYDRUS. Figure 44 presents water content in the evaporation zone from the 50 HYDRUS simulations used in DU PA v1.4. Clive DU PA Model—Response to DWMRC 12-3-2020 Comments 31 March 2021 79 Figure 44. Water content in the evaporation zone from 50 HYDRUS simulations used in DU PA v1.4. Figure 44 demonstrates that the tails of the distribution for water content are reasonably accounted for in GoldSim in DU PA v1.4. Note that this figure is compared with 1000 runs of DU PA v1.4. Figure 45 compares water content in the evaporation zone from the 50 HYDRUS simulations used in DU PA v1.4 with the results of the DU PA v1.4 for 50 runs rather than 1000 runs. Figure 45 demonstrates that the tails of the distribution for water content are very well accounted for in GoldSim in DU PA v1.4. Clive DU PA Model—Response to DWMRC 12-3-2020 Comments 31 March 2021 80 Figure 45. Water content in the evaporation zone from 50 HYDRUS simulations used in DU PA v1.4. 5.12 UDEQ Comment 12: Climate Record and Comparison With Other Sites Explain mechanistically why the percolation rates predicted with the original DU PA, Model v1.4, and those utilizing the 1000-year precipitation record differ. Compare the predictions from the models (e.g., water-content records, fluxes, etc.), and provide a mechanistic reason for the differences in percolation rate between the sets of predictions that is consistent with the principles of variably saturated flow and soil-atmosphere interactions. Present, justify, and document why the model predicts percolation rates that are 10x lower than those that are being measured in field studies of similar covers in Blanding, and Monticello, Utah. 5.12.1 Comment 12 Response This comment includes two topics, which will be addressed separately below. 5.12.1.1 Climate Record The results presented for the 1000-year meteorological record presented in Neptune (2020a) were in error. We appreciate the question from the Department, as it prompted a re-examination of the results and discovery of the error, which occurred in the processing of the potential evapotranspiration (PET) record for input to HYDRUS. This led to unrealistically high PET and, as the question notes, low percolations. The PET record was revised and the 50 simulations were Clive DU PA Model—Response to DWMRC 12-3-2020 Comments 31 March 2021 81 run again. The parameterization of the simulations is the same as documented in Table 9 of Neptune (2015b). The 1000-year meteorological record is prepared using the same methodology as the Model v1.4 100-year record, such that the average behavior across the records is similar. Average annual precipitation and PET for both records are summarized in Table 10. While averages are similar, the 1000-year record contains higher maximum daily precipitation events, as intended. For example, there are 48 daily precipitation events higher than 2.77 cm in the 1000-year record, which was the maximum daily precipitation in the 100-year record. Table 10. Summary statistics for 100-year and 1000-year climate records. Meteorological Record Average Precipitation (cm/yr) Average PET* (cm/yr) Maximum Daily Precipitation (cm) 100-year (Model v1.4) 21.4 128.7 2.77 1000-year 21.9 127.1 4.49 *PET computed via the Hargreaves equation as documented in the Model v1.4 Unsaturated Zone White Paper. The 1000-yr and 100-yr precipitation records are further compared in Figure 46. At both annual and quarterly scales, the 1000-yr record contains broader ranges of total precipitation than the 100-yr record, though both datasets have similar means. Additionally, the 1000-yr record contains more periods with exceptionally high precipitation, which are shown in Figure 46 as points. These values are characterized by being greater than the 3rd-quartile of each dataset by an amount at least 1.5 times the interquartile range. Clive DU PA Model—Response to DWMRC 12-3-2020 Comments 31 March 2021 82 Figure 46. Total precipitation over various time periods for the 1000y and 100y records. Simulations are run for 2000 years, repeating the 1000-year meteorological record twice. Results are computed by averaging the flux at the bottom of the model over the last 1000 years of the simulation in order to capture the range of behavior over the record, while avoiding any transient fluxes early in the simulation associated with initial conditions. On average, percolations with the 1000-year record are about 10 times higher than the corresponding simulations in Model v1.4, with an average value of 0.23 mm/yr, compared to 0.024 mm/yr in the Model v1.4 simulations. The maximum percolation with the 1000-year record is 1.3 mm/yr, whereas the maximum in Model v1.4 is about 0.2 mm/yr. This maximum occurs for the same parameter set using both meteorological records, simulation 20 of 50, which is discussed at length in Section 5.7.1 due to having the least favorable evaporation zone SWCC of the 50 simulations. Histograms of the results from these sets of runs are shown below in the top two panels of Figure 49. The higher percolations are due to the atmospheric conditions breaking the capillary barrier pressure threshold more often; this idea is described at length Section 5.7.1. Water fluxes through the cover respond in a non-linear fashion to extreme precipitation events. The new 1000- year meteorological record contains precipitation patterns that are more intense on a variety of timeframes. For example, years 214 and 796 have the wettest 60-day periods in the entire 1000- Clive DU PA Model—Response to DWMRC 12-3-2020 Comments 31 March 2021 83 year record, with frequent intense precipitation that causes tensions in the evaporation zone to fall well below the capillary barrier threshold and remain in that range for a prolonged period in nearly every model realization, regardless of the evaporative zone SWCC. This causes a notable increase in the flux at the bottom of the cover system. By contrast, many model realizations of Model v1.4 (100-year record) had no significant spikes in flow through the bottom of the cover. Using the 1000-year record, these simulations with the more favorable SWCCs in the evaporation zone exhibited relatively stable long-term trends in percolation, punctuated by a few rapid increases when the capillary barrier was overcome by intense periods of precipitation and/or periods of low potential evapotranspiration. Results from both meteorological records are presented below for Simulation 1 of 50. In the 100-year record, the flux at the bottom of the cover is not responsive to the meteorological forcings because the capillary barrier is isolating the bottom of the cover from the top. Using the 1000-year record, however, the capillary barrier is unable to provide full isolation, and the fluxes are persistently higher with notable rises around years 214 and 796 (years 1214 and 1796 in the plot, as only the second 1000-year cycle is shown). Clive DU PA Model—Response to DWMRC 12-3-2020 Comments 31 March 2021 84 Figure 47. Flux at the bottom of the cover and precipitation for both the 100-year (top) and 1000-year (bottom) meteorological records for Simulation 1 of 50. Only the last cycle of the meteorological record is shown. Vertical scales are the same for both plots. By contrast, for the realizations with least favorable evaporation zone SWCCs, the 1000-year meteorological record keeps tensions very near the critical range (200–700 cm) throughout the simulation. As a result, flow through the bottom of the cover is much more responsive to the meteorological forcing, as high precipitation events readily push tensions below the threshold pressure at which the FPL has significantly higher hydraulic conductivity, as described in Section 5.7.1. Further investigation of the persistently high moisture conditions observed for these simulations reveals that the ratio of actual transpiration to potential transpiration is rather Clive DU PA Model—Response to DWMRC 12-3-2020 Comments 31 March 2021 85 low, considering the relatively wet conditions. For example, actual transpiration is about 19% of potential transpiration for Simulation 20, despite prevailing root zone tensions less than 1000 cm, typically thought to be favorable for root water uptake. This highlights a powerful conservatism in the root water uptake parameters. The v1.4 HYDRUS model uses the S-shaped root water uptake efficiency curve (ɑ) to govern plant water uptake as a function of water tension. Plants can struggle to draw water from soil if the water is very tightly held in the soil pore spaces. In very dry soils with tension above the permanent wilting point (usually regarded as on the order of 10,000 cm for most plants), transpiration ceases entirely. The S-shaped curve is defined by two parameters, including one called h50; h50 defines the pressure head at which root water uptake is reduced by 50% due to water stress. The S-shaped curve used in the v1.4 Model is depicted by the blue line in Figure 48, below, with h50 equal to 200 cm. This greatly reduces the root water uptake in the model, as transpiration is reduced drastically when soil moisture tensions exceed a few hundred centimeters in the root zone, which is very common in the model output. Therefore, even in relatively wet conditions, the model is conservatively throttling root water uptake, leading to low transpiration utilization, as mentioned above. A second S-shaped curve, with h50 equal to 1500 cm, is also plotted in the figure for comparison. Two other water stress models are shown in Figure 48 that use the Feddes water stress model (Feddes et al. 1978) rather than the S-shaped model. One is taken from the HYDRUS input files for the Blanding model (MWH Americas 2007). The other is from Taylor and Ashcroft (1972), a compilation of root water extraction parameters for a variety of food crops. For these two models, root water uptake would be uninhibited by water stress at tensions below about 1500 cm, and uptake would still be above 50% up to tensions of about 4000–5000 cm. Figure 48. Water stress models. Clive DU PA Model—Response to DWMRC 12-3-2020 Comments 31 March 2021 86 The impacts of this parameterization are not readily apparent when using the 100-year meteorological record, as breakthrough of the capillary barrier is relatively rare and fleeting. However, simulations performed using the 1000-year record show persistently wet periods following intense precipitation that are slow to recover to a drier condition, and despite that, the ratio of actual transpiration to potential transpiration is still low. This prompted further examination of the root water uptake model. To appreciate the impacts of this conservatism, another set of 50 simulations using the 1000-year meteorological record were run with h50 set to 1500 cm. All other parameters are identical to the previous sets of simulations, which varied three parameters as described in Neptune (2015b). Under this scenario, percolations are below 0.1 mm/yr for all simulations, and transpiration efficiency increases dramatically (e.g., from 19% to 66% for Simulation 20). Figure 49 shows histograms for the 100-year record (Model v1.4 simulations), the 1000-year record with h50 set to 200 cm, and the 1000-year record with h50 set to 1500 cm. Figure 50 shows a simulation-by- simulation comparison of the results. It is notable that the maximum percolation value for the 1000-year simulations using h50=1500 cm is lower than the maximum from the Model v1.4 simulations that used the 100-year record. The average percolation, however, is about two times higher than the v1.4 simulations (0.042 mm/yr vs. 0.024 mm/yr). Clive DU PA Model—Response to DWMRC 12-3-2020 Comments 31 March 2021 87 Figure 49. Histograms of sets of 50 simulations using the 100-year meteorological record (top), the 1000-year meteorological record with Model v1.4 root water uptake parameters (middle), and the 1000-year meteorological record with h50 set to 1500 cm (bottom). Clive DU PA Model—Response to DWMRC 12-3-2020 Comments 31 March 2021 88 Figure 50. Simulation by simulation comparison of percolations derived from scenarios with h50 set to 200 cm (blue) and with h50 set to 1500 cm (green). The overall effect of increasing the root water uptake efficiency is a more stable soil moisture profile that recovers more quickly from perturbations. As a result, more pore space is available to accommodate infiltration from subsequent precipitation events. Daily evaporation is often lower when the root water uptake is increased, as the root zone competes with the surface evaporation for water, and as a result, the upward hydraulic gradient during dry periods is diminished. In short, the root water uptake model used in the v1.4 HYDUS simulations is extremely conservative. When the root water uptake parameters are made less conservative for the 1000- year climate record, percolations are below 0.1 mm/yr for all simulations. In summary, simulations performed with the v1.4 HYDRUS model structure and the 1000-year meteorological record produce higher percolations than those predicted using the 100-year record. A powerful conservatism in the root water uptake model contributes heavily to the change in results. When this conservatism is relaxed, the predicted percolations are well within the bounds of the v1.4 HYDRUS simulations. Clive DU PA Model—Response to DWMRC 12-3-2020 Comments 31 March 2021 89 5.12.1.2 Comparison Across Sites The second part of the comment asks that the hybrid cover design proposed for the Federal Cell be compared with similar covers in Blanding and Monticello, Utah; and the estimated percolation rates through the Federal Cell compared with percolation data collected from the covers at the other two sites. Figure 51 depicts the basic layering of the cover designs. Table 11, Table 12, and Table 13 summarize important engineering/hydraulic properties of the various layers in the Clive, Monticello, and Blanding cover designs. Table 14 summarizes precipitation and percolation data available across these sites, including monitoring from a Cover Test Cell at Clive, UT that was constructed to evaluate a previous riprap cover design. See Section 5.2.1.2 for more details on the design and material properties of the materials used in the Clive Test Cell. Clive DU PA Model—Response to DWMRC 12-3-2020 Comments 31 March 2021 90 Figure 51. Layering of ET cover systems at Clive, Monticello, and Blanding, Utah. Clive DU PA Model—Response to DWMRC 12-3-2020 Comments 31 March 2021 91 Table 11. Engineering properties of cover layers in the Clive Federal Cell, DU PA v1.4. Layer Input Parameter3 ET Cover DU PA v1.4 (actual, 50 sims) Surface θr (unitless) 0.111 θs (unitless) 0.4089 α (1/cm) 0.0169 n (unitless) 1.3 Ksat (cm/day) 4.46 Evaporative Zone θr (unitless) 0.111 θs (unitless) 0.481 α (1/cm) 0.0169 n (unitless) 1.3 Ksat (cm/day) 4.46 Frost Protection θr (unitless) 0.065 θs (unitless) 0.41 α (1/cm) 0.075 n (unitless) 1.89 Ksat (cm/day) 106.1 Upper Radon Barrier θr (unitless) 0.1 θs (unitless) 0.432 α (1/cm) 0.003 n (unitless) 1.172 Ksat (cm/day) 6.75 Lower Radon Barrier θr (unitless) 0.1 θs (unitless) 0.432 α (1/cm) 0.003 n (unitless) 1.172 Ksat (cm/day) 6.75 3 Values for α and n in the surface and evaporative zone layer; and for Ks in the radon barrier layers were variable in the 50 simulations run for v1.4; average value reported here. Clive DU PA Model—Response to DWMRC 12-3-2020 Comments 31 March 2021 92 Table 12. Engineering properties of cover layers in the Monticello disposal facility. Monticello Input Parameter Table Layer Input Parameter Monticello Gravel Amended θr (unitless) n/a θs (unitless) n/a α (1/cm) n/a n (unitless) n/a Ksat (cm/day) 30.24 Water Storage & Protection θr (unitless) 0 θs (unitless) 0.3 α (1/cm) 0.0011 n (unitless) 1.31 Ksat (cm/day) 3.6288 Biota Barrier θr (unitless) n/a θs (unitless) n/a α (1/cm) n/a n (unitless) n/a Ksat (cm/day) n/a Water Storage & Protection θr (unitless) 0 θs (unitless) 0.29 α (1/cm) 0.001 n (unitless) 1.5 Ksat (cm/day) 0.0320 Sand θr (unitless) n/a θs (unitless) n/a α (1/cm) n/a n (unitless) n/a Ksat (cm/day) n/a Tailings θr (unitless) n/a θs (unitless) n/a α (1/cm) n/a n (unitless) n/a Ksat (cm/day) n/a Clive DU PA Model—Response to DWMRC 12-3-2020 Comments 31 March 2021 93 Table 13. Engineering properties of cover layers in the Blanding White Mesa Mill Tailings Facility. Blanding Input Parameter Table Layer Input Parameter Blanding Gravel Amended θr (unitless) 0.045 θs (unitless) 0.254 α (1/cm) 0.0145 n (unitless) 1.406 Ksat (cm/day) 5.6 Water Storage & Protection θr (unitless) 0.055 θs (unitless) 0.404 α (1/cm) 0.0145 n (unitless) 1.406 Ksat (cm/day) 7.4 Compacted Cover (Clay Radon Barrier) θr (unitless) 0.046 θs (unitless) 0.334 α (1/cm) 0.0229 n (unitless) 1.261 Ksat (cm/day) 3.6 Interim θr (unitless) 0.059 θs (unitless) 0.439 α (1/cm) 0.0125 n (unitless) 1.461 Ksat (cm/day) 10.4 Tailings θr (unitless) n/a θs (unitless) n/a α (1/cm) n/a n (unitless) n/a Ksat (cm/day) n/a Clive DU PA Model—Response to DWMRC 12-3-2020 Comments 31 March 2021 94 Table 14. Precipitation and percolation data for the Clive Cover Test Cell, Monticello, and Blanding facilities. Clive precipitation average calculated for the years 2002–2016 to match with Cover Test Cell period of service; site average across 28-year meteorological record is 217.41 mm/yr. Reference Trinity Consultants (2021) EnergySolutions (2017) Benson et al. (2008) Energy Fuels (2021) Study Clive Clive Test Cell Monticello Blanding Year Precipitation (mm/yr) Percolation (mm/yr) Precipitation (mm/yr) Percolation (mm/yr) Precipitation (mm/yr) Percolation (mm/yr) 2001 172.5 -- 377.7 0 -- -- 2002 147.9 0.652 228.6 0 -- -- 2003 183.8 0.446 364 0 -- -- 2004 230.1 0.178 442 0.2 -- -- 2005 258.1 0.455 519.7 3.8 -- -- 2006 187.7 0.256 447.3 0.2 -- -- 2007 210.6 0.237 304.5 0 -- -- 2008 81.3 0.229 99.8 0.4 -- -- 2009 206.2 0.14 -- -- -- -- 2010 227.8 0.164 -- -- -- -- 2011 246.1 0.11 -- -- -- -- 2012 167.4 0.023 -- -- -- -- 2013 209.8 0.0001 -- -- -- -- 2014 213.6 0 -- -- -- -- 2015 247.7 0 -- -- -- -- 2016 271.3 0.231 -- -- 59.9 0 2017 193.8 -- -- -- 222.7 0.65 2018 170.2 -- -- -- 163.4 0.9 2019 342.6 -- -- -- 307.9 1.01 2020 116.3 -- -- -- 127.8 0.89 Average 205.96 0.208 347.95 0.575 176.34 0.69 There are several important distinctions between the designs. The Clive and Monticello designs both employ fine materials at the surface, creating an evaporative zone where water is stored and released through evapotranspiration processes, combined with a layer of coarse material placed below the fine materials that creates a capillary barrier to prevent downward flow, holding water Clive DU PA Model—Response to DWMRC 12-3-2020 Comments 31 March 2021 95 in the evaporative zone more effectively. From the Monticello design, it is surmised that the biota barrier gravel likely creates an effective capillary barrier; however, parameterization for this layer was not available in the references reviewed. In contrast, the Clive Test Cell and the cover design for the Blanding site do not include a capillary break. While fine materials are used in the upper layers of the Blanding cover to create a water storage zone, the design lacks a capillary break that would allow this water to be held in the storage zone more effectively. The Clive test cell lacks both a storage zone in the surface layers (consisting of riprap and coarse filter materials), and a capillary break between the evaporative zone and lower clay radon barrier layers. The hydrologic principles and mechanisms that govern the performance of a capillary barrier are expanded upon in detail in Section 5.7.1. The differences in cover design and average precipitation between the sites provides some insight into the difference in percolation measured from the covers, and the predicted performance for the Clive cover design from the v1.4 HYDRUS modeling. Precipitation is higher for the Monticello site compared to the Clive Cover Test Cell and Blanding covers. While measured percolation rates are higher for the Monticello site compared to the Clive Test Cell, they are similar to those monitored at Blanding. At first glance, the higher rates of percolation at Monticello, compared to the Clive Test Cell, may be intuitive since Monticello has roughly double the precipitation. However, another way to look at the results is that, despite Monticello receiving roughly double the amount of annual precipitation, only a very small fraction of this additional water is able to successfully travel through the cover. As such, despite the markedly higher precipitation at Monticello, the cover is effective at limiting percolation. The rates of percolation through the Clive Test Cell and Blanding covers may reflect the more arid climate at these sites, as these covers lack both the storage and capillary barrier features employed in the Monticello cover design. In fact, this is what the HYDRUS modeling results indicate when a similar design is subjected to the climate at Clive, UT. As noted in Section 5.12.1.1 above, average percolation for the 50 simulations run in DU PA v1.4 is 0.024 mm/yr; about an order of magnitude lower than the Cover Test Cell and slightly more than an order of magnitude lower than the reference Monticello and Blanding sites. Figure 51 offers some possible explanations for this predicted difference in percolation. The Federal Cell design is similar to that of the high-performance Monticello cover, and includes an evaporative zone in the surface layers to store and release water through time, and a strong capillary break between the evaporative zone and lower radon barrier layers. By employing similar features used in the Monticello cover, but subjecting such a cover to only half the amount of precipitation, results very low predicted rates of infiltration. Additionally, it is also possible that the Monticello design has shown increased performance in the years following those reported in Table 14. It is our understanding that additional data is nearing publication. If the Monticello cover continues to show improvement in its performance, despite the much higher levels of precipitation, the results predicted by the v1.4 HYDRUS modeling become increasingly justified. Clive DU PA Model—Response to DWMRC 12-3-2020 Comments 31 March 2021 96 6.0 Conclusion DU PA v1.4 demonstrates compliance with the dose and groundwater protection requirements of Utah regulations relating to DU disposal. The interrogatory and response process has added to the record supporting these conclusions; but has not caused the quantitative model to require revision. Accordingly, DU PA v1.4 remains the basis for demonstrating compliance of the disposal facility. Compliance with UAC R313-25-9(5)(a) is affirmed by DU PA v1.4 and Deep Time model v1.5, together with their supporting documentation as supplemented by the interrogatory/response cycle. 7.0 Attachments 1. 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Analysis of Temporal Variation and Scaling of Hydrological Variables Based on a Numerical Model of the Sagehen Creek Watershed, Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment doi: 10.1007/s00477-017-1421-0 Zhao, Y., et al., 2016. Modeling of Coupled Water and Heat Transfer in Freezing and Thawing Soils, Inner Mongolia, Water 8 (424) 1–18 Clive DU PA Model—Response to DWMRC 12-3-2020 Comments 31 March 2021 102 Attachment 1: Federal Cell Drawings 14004-C01 through 14004-C05